Coverage of national politics is often focussed on the challenge to Labour of Reform UK, which has been running close behind the party of government in opinion polls, and sometimes just ahead. But in much of Greater London, recent election results show that Labour faces stronger opposition from very different parts of the political spectrum, varying in strength and character in accordance with local demographics.
The map of general election runners-up below, compiled by the LSE’s Jenevieve Treadwell, shows that the Green Party finished second in many seats in Labour-dominated inner London east of the city’s north-south axis last July. But also significant are the patches of grey, which denote Independent candidates coming second to Labour – the darker the grey, the closer.
These Independents had more in common than being unattached to national parties. All but one such candidate was Muslim and all placed Gaza and criticism of Labour’s stance on the war there at the centre of their campaigns. This was augmented by policy positions generally to Labour’s left and by claims of being more closely attuned to local voters’ everyday concerns.
The same mix of issues and and emphases helped an Independent win close to 12,000 votes in the Havering & Redbridge London Assembly election last May. He finished fifth but contributed significantly to a split in the left-of-Tory vote that probably weakened Labour’s otherwise decent chance of gaining the seat from the Conservatives.
Before that, in 2023, candidates under the banner of Newham Independents had won two borough by-elections at Labour’s expense. The first of those occurred before the war in Gaza began, which underlines that strong feelings among Muslim Londoners about that conflict haven’t been the only factor behind the progress of Independent candidates of this type.
Earlier still, in May 2022, Lutfur Rahman had regained the mayoralty of Tower Hamlets and the local Aspire Party that he leads won a small majority of council seats (since wiped out), ousting Labour in the heart of the East End. Again, the result, like Aspire, reflected the strong support and concerns of local Muslims.
All of this forms the context for a Redbridge Council by-election to be held on 27 March. It will provide a further test of Labour’s resilience in a part of outer east London where its strength has lately been eroded, most famously by Independent Leanne Mohamad almost unseated Wes Streeting in Ilford North. Labour candidates won all three Mayfield ward seats with ease at the last borough elections. Defending the one now up for grabs might be much harder.
The seat has become vacant because Labour’s Jas Athwal resigned as a councillor last month. Previously council leader, he stood down from that role after becoming the MP for Ilford South last year. But his pleasure at entering Parliament was diluted by revelations about the poor condition of several homes he owns and rents out through an agent.
To that dark cloud over Redbridge Labour can be added the case of Hainault ward councillor Sam Gould, who has just pleaded guilty to two counts of indecent exposure. Gould, suspended by Labour, was an aide to Streeting. He has now resigned from the council, meaning another by-election will ensue.
These events will have encouraged Noor Jahan Begum, who is running as an Ilford Independent for Mayfield. Begum finished second to Athwal in Ilford South last year with a vote share of 23.4 per cent. She was a long way behind, but Athwal’s 40.2 per cent was 25 per cent down from Labour’s portion in 2019. And if dismay at the plight of Palestinians is, as seems likely, a mobilising issue in a ward where a small majority of residents are Muslim, current events in Gaza could boost support for her too.
In that light, Begum’s media pitch to Mayfield electors has been interesting. Introducing herself as a local person and magistrate who works for the NHS, her written statement is entirely about local issues, criticising both Labour and the Tories, describing Mayfield’s streets as dirty and unsafe while also complaining about “huge tax rises”. Her X output, too, majors on her promise to “be your voice” and provide a change from the council status quo.
Gaza doesn’t feature in these campaign outputs, though it did when she contested Ilford South and the war made a recent appearance in the Redbridge & Ilford Independents’ X feed, which has also likened Redbridge Labour to “a mafia”.
Begum’s campaign and Ilford Independents as an entity, which announced its creation a few days after the general election, is also being energetically backed by the Redbridge Community Action Group (RCAG), which since December 2023, shortly after the Israel-Gaza war began, has been attacking Labour for its stance on the issue, denouncing “Zionists” and re-posting messages about spending cuts from Independent MPs representing other parts of England.
Other backers of Begum include Andy Walker, a supporter of TUSC – Trade Union and Socialist Coaltion – a grouping co-founded in 2010 by the late RMT union general secretary Bob Crow. Walker, whose X output has been reposted by RCAG, was TUSC’s candidate for Havering & Redbridge last year, but has been helping Begum in Mayfield. Begum has also been joined on Mayfield doorsteps by Rosa Gomez, a Redbridge councillor who left Labour last June, one of three to do so since May 2022.
Will Begum win? Mayfield itself and factors further afield appear to give her grounds for optimism, and a Labour activist told On London that the race is close. That said, though striking, the rise of Muslim east London Independents, often women, allied with the far-Left against Israel abroad and public spending cuts at home while also promising to be more receptive than rivals to everyday neighbourhood concerns has not necessarily been victorious, including in Newham and elsewhere in Redbridge last year.
In addition, Labour candidate Mazhar Saleem might be helped by having the Green Party’s Nadir Iqbal Gilani in the candidate line-up too, providing another option for left-leaning voters unhappy with his party. Note, too, that On London‘s elections expert Lewis Baston has shown that Labour support has not, in general, fallen as much in Greater London as in other parts of the country and might even be recovering. Another Redbridge Labour activist maintains that most residents recognise that local councillors can do something about getting potholes filled but are unlikely to get Israel out of Gaza.
With the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK also fielding candidates, Mayfield voters have plenty of choice. The result, as ever, will depend significantly on turnout, with Labour hoping their supporters don’t vote with their feet. Whatever the outcome, though, the new crop of east London Independents seems set to continue to make a mark.
OnLondon.co.uk provides unique, no-advertising and no-paywall coverage of the capital’s politics, development and culture. Support the website and its writers for just £5 a month or £50 a year and get things that other people won’t. Details HERE. Follow Dave Hill on Bluesky. Photo: Redbridge Town Hall.