When the government was told in July by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC) that it was falling well short of its “net zero by 2050” climate change target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, a similar warning about local targets seemed inevitable.
That came earlier this month, with the CCC telling the London Assembly that Sadiq Khan’s even more ambitious target of achieving net zero in London by 2030 was similarly in doubt. Now Khan himself has accepted that his targets are not just at risk but currently unattainable. “As things stand now, we are not on track to meet them,” he admitted yesterday at this month’s Mayor’s Question Time session.
It was a stark concession from a Mayor who first declared a “climate emergency” back in 2018, brought his original 2050 net zero target forward by 20 years, and has taken a leading role in the C40 network of cities across the world taking forward climate action. Why is City Hall’s target looking unattainable, and what should happen next?
In truth, Khan’s 2030 target always looked like a stretch, relying substantially on action by central government along with encouraging individual Londoners and London businesses to make changes, particularly with heating and transport – swapping boilers for heat pumps and petrol or diesel cars for electric, as well as driving less.
Take “retrofitting”, now a key focus. This means insulating the city’s homes and fitting heat pumps in order to cut the amount of heating they require by 40 per cent. It is essential work, given that around a third of London’s carbon emissions come from its homes, but it’s also expensive.
Around half of the city’s social housing stock alone – council and housing association properties, including Right to Buy homes within blocks – needs to be retrofitted. That’s about 500,000 homes, representing one in seven of all homes in the capital.
Despite Khan promising a “retrofit revolution” in 2021, progress has been sluggish. According to figures from London Councils, the cross-party boroughs’ grouping, just 3,057 social homes were retrofitted in 2022. Meeting the 2030 target would mean increasing the rate of retrofit 15-fold, with a price tag of some £13 billion.
That sort of bill can’t be met by councils and housing associations on their own, and there’s general consensus that national government hasn’t stepped up to the mark. Funding has fallen short and been “stop-start”, according to the local authorities, with councils forced to spend time bidding for cash.
There’s also a shortage of trained people to do the work and a overall fragmented approach, not helped by Rishi Sunak’s administration rolling back deadlines, particularly in the run-up to the general election.
Homeowners too seeking to make their homes more energy efficient have faced a “maze of complex process, confusing regulation and high upfront costs” according to a report last year from the lobby group BusinessLDN. High electricity charges have eaten into cost-effectiveness as well, and there’s also the “hassle” factor. Retrofit can be a big job, and not necessarily seen as a priority without clear government messaging – and a reasonable financial incentive.
Following the change of government, greater Whitehall support is anticipated, including possible multi-year funding settlements for the Mayor and boroughs allocated by need rather than by bidding. This would support what Khan said on Thursday would be a “genuine retrofit revolution”. Energy secretary Ed Miliband has just announced that planning permission requirements which were deterring heat pump installation will be scrapped.
But could City Hall have done more? A report last September from Green Party Assembly member (AM) and now deputy party leader Zack Polanski suggested that although government investment in retrofit remained inadequate, Khan was also dragging his feet, on training and procurement particularly. Recent research for City Hall and London Councils was relatively damning too. It found there was still “no collective strategy” on retrofit across the city “or indeed a means of communicating and gaining consensus”.
Current arrangements, the research said, were resulting in an “unpredictable” pipeline of work, holding back supply chain development, and a “pepper-pot” of uncoordinated projects, with successful pilots generally “under-exploited” and no system for coordinating efforts.
The report’s recommendation that a new “London Office of Retrofit” should be set up, to coordinate and plan retrofit work city-wide, identifying funding, improving the supply chain and speeding up delivery, is now being taken forward by Khan and the boroughs. “All is not lost,” he told AMs yesterday.
Does a missed target matter? Dr James Richardson from Climate Change Committee told the Assembly’s environment committee last week that getting things done was more important, and there’s certainly a range of action underway. But a target too easily set aside risks undermining the credibility of the policy itself, particularly in an area like climate change which is increasingly contested.
Has the climate change agenda become over-technocratic too, even while the need to win support for action is widely acknowledged? Warnings from long-standing Labour AM Leonie Cooper seem pertinent: “I think there is a big issue about the language we use all the time as well, which I find very mysterious,” she said, adding that terms such as “net zero” were “phrases that a lot of people would not ever dream of using” in their ordinary speech. “I think we need to address that,” she concluded.
On climate action, time for a new battle for hearts and minds perhaps?
Watch 21 November 2024’s Mayor’s Question Time in full here.
OnLondon.co.uk provides unique coverage of the capital’s politics, development and culture. Support it for just £5 a month or £50 a year and get things for your money other people won’t. Details HERE. Follow Charles Wright on Bluesky. Photo from cover of Zack Polanski report.