Two borough by-elections took place on Thursday, one in Redbridge and the other in Greenwich. Their results were intriguingly different from those of the pair held a month ago, one of which was also for a Greenwich seat. On that occasion, the contest was for the marginal (normally Conservative) Eltham Town & Avery Hill ward. The latest was in a ward that, like most of Greenwich, is usually reliably Labour – Shooters Hill.
Shooters Hill itself is an outcrop of London clay noted for its commanding view of the capital and the lower Thames. Its name is reputed to derive from its former reputation as a haunt of highwaymen and robbers who preyed on travellers on the road between London and Kent, though some claim it was because archery was practised there.
A somewhat peculiar edifice, the triangular brick tower of Severndroog Castle, built in 1784, stands on a hill in the south of the ward. The residential part is mostly privately-developed owner-occupied suburbia, developed by George Wimpey in the 1930s. Its northern boundary is a bit irregular and takes in the Barnfield estate, normally regarded as part of Plumstead. The population is, according to the 2021 Census, 51 per cent white and 29 per cent black.
The by-election was caused by the resignation of Labour’s Danny Thorpe, who led the council from 2018 until 2020 and was a member of it for 20 years. Thorpe explained: “Due to some changes in my life since the election, I’m no longer able to dedicate the time I once had to my duties, and the time has come for me to step down.” He is director of communications for the Clarion housing association. His successor as Labour candidate was Raja Zeeshan, a lawyer and human rights advocate.
The main opposition came from Conservative Ezra Aydin, a robotics researcher. The campaign machines performed predictably – the opposition criticised Labour’s handling of open spaces and public safety and Labour put on a vigorous doorstep defence. Three other candidates stood, from the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK.
The result was a comfortable Labour victory on a disappointing but not disastrous turnout of 22.5 per cent. Zeeshan (pictured) received 1,043 votes (57.9 per cent, down 1.6 points on the result in the full borough elections in 2022). Aydin polled 237 votes (13.2 per cent, down 0.8 points). Green candidate Tamasin Rhymes was third (185 votes, 10.3 per cent). Reform UK’s Alan Cecil’s 179 votes (9.9 per cent, up from only 2.1 per cent in 2022) were enough to push Lib Dem Kirstie Shedden (158) into fifth, although her party’s share was up by a whisker.
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The Redbridge by-election was in Wanstead Park ward and the latest in the string across the city caused by London councillors, mostly Labour, becoming MPs in July. In this case, the vacancy came about because Bayo Alaba, a former paratrooper, won the Southend East & Rochford parliamentary seat. He and David Burton-Sampson, who won Southend West & Leigh, are the first Labour politicians to represent the Essex seaside city. Alaba had represented Wanstead Park since May 2022.
Nobody can complain about the name of that electoral district, as most of the acreage of the ward consists of the public open space of Wanstead Park itself. It is what remains of the grounds of Wanstead House, which was called “one of the noblest houses, not only in England, but in Europe” after its construction in 1715. The house was a place of exile for the French Bourbons, but fell upon hard times and was pulled down after it failed to find a bidder at an auction in 1822.
The ward’s resident population lives in two separate sections. One is the Aldersbrook area in the middle of the park, a privately developed estate built in the 1910s and a conservation area since 2002. The other is a smaller suburban settlement south and east of Wanstead’s Central Line Underground station.
The Wanstead Park area has been marginal or Conservative in the past – the Wanstead & Woodford parliamentary constituency that existed before 1997 was safely Tory. However, the ward on its current boundaries (since 2018) has been reasonably safe for Labour as Redbridge as a whole has swung dramatically towards the party.
It won its first council majority in 2014 and consolidated its control with massive majorities in the next two borough elections. However, the 2024 general election saw Labour’s vote slip dramatically, mostly to Independents and, in Leyton & Wanstead constituency, to the Greens, who came second there. Redbridge’s political trends have broadly reflected the changing ethnic composition of the suburban borough, which has become increasingly Asian and Muslim, though Wanstead Park was majority (65 per cent) white at the time of the 2021 Census.
Six candidates stood in the by-election. The five main London parties were joined by a member of the Ilford Independents, a registered local political party which hopes to emulate the success so far of the Newham Independents in the borough next door. Two of the candidates, Syed Siddiqi for the Greens and Raj Forhad for Reform UK, stood in Ilford South in the general election.
The result was, as in Shooters Hill, a comfortable Labour win that confirms the party’s strength in these middle-London, white majority and owner-occupied wards. Emma Shepherd-Mallinson, a government relations and communications consultant, was the victor with 934 votes (46.9 per cent, a drop of 5.5 points since 2022).
The runner-up, a long way behind, was Daniel Moraru for the Conservatives (349 votes, 17.5 per cent, down 1.5 per cent) and Sharula Kangle for the Ilford Independents was third (284 votes, 14.2 per cent). Siddiqi for the Greens was fourth (222 votes, 11.1 per cent) with the Lib Dems and Reform UK well behind. Turnout was, for a local by-election in a safe seat, very respectable at 33.2 per cent.
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Labour has tended to do poorly in council by-elections since winning the general election in July. This is partly because of the peculiar nature of the general election result – a government formed with a parliamentary landslide on the basis of a low share of the vote and a wider degree of passive support – and by the lack of a honeymoon period. In London, it is also about local level incumbency at a time when Labour controls many councils and when local government has been under acute financial pressure. There is, too, the difficulty of getting Labour voters to turn out when the party is in power nationally. Local elections in 1965, 1975 and even 1998 showed signs of differential turnout harming Labour.
Considering these factors, the two by-elections of 14 November produced pretty good results for Labour by any standards. The swing to the Conservatives since May 2022 was a tiny 0.4 per cent in Shooters Hill and only two per cent in Wanstead Park. Given that the May 2022 borough elections took place under the shadow of Partygate and produced the worst Conservative results in any set of London borough elections, these are very poor Tory outcomes in wards where the demographics should have offered them some hope. Likewise, the Independent challenge in Wanstead Park fell a long way short of the results the similar anti-Labour grouping has achieved in Newham. This will be a relief for Labour given its general election performance in Redbridge seats.
It would be a mistake, though, to generalise too much from these results. Local by-elections vary – that is the joy and the frustration of writing about them – and last month’s overall poor results for Labour were interrupted by a strong hold in South Acton, Ealing, on 11 October. The May 2026 borough elections could see a fascinating pattern of results. Labour’s vote might fall sharply. Nonetheless, it might not lose many seats in its heartlands, and could hold up well in middle and outer London as the Tories fail to impress and Reform UK eats into the right-wing vote. But that is a year and a half away. Much could change between now and then.
Support OnLondon.co.uk and its freelancers for just £5 a month or £50 a year and get things for your money that other people don’t. Details HERE. Follow Lewis Baston on Bluesky. Photo from Raja Zeeshan.