Officially, Sadiq Khan is insisting he won’t decide until next year whether or not to stand for another term as Mayor of London. But back in February, I concluded that his decision will almost certainly be “no”.
There was something less than convincing about he way he tried to assure an interviewer that he “still had fuel in the tank” and was already mapping out his 2028 campaign. At Labour’s conference in Liverpool this week that sense was reinforced, even though he went around insisting he was still “fizzing with ideas”.
City Hall observers say two different things about the Mayor in recent times. Some say he is drained, knackered and “looks ill”. Others report him having the suddenly relaxed manner of somebody who has already “checked out”. Both suggest it’s time to go.
There are persuasive electoral arguments for Khan calling it a day after a record-breaking three terms at City Hall. He is proud of what he has achieved, often in the face of difficulties beyond his control. He has had to endure the turbulence of Covid and face the economic fall-out from Brexit, which has impacted housing delivery in particular. That said, there hasn’t been an overwhelming sense that the capital has been transformed under his leadership. It’s not clear that running for another term passes a basic vibe test.
Politics moves quickly. Khan has suddenly found himself hemmed in and without the options he might have anticipated a few years ago. In the past, many have thought that he, like his predecessor Boris Johnson, saw the mayoralty as a stepping stone to senior national government office. Khan got out of Westminster and became Mayor when Jeremy Corbyn was leading Labour in hopeless opposition. This created a scenario in which he might later come back to the House of Commons in some kind of saviour role.
But for various reasons of electoral timing, along with the unexpected, if short-lived, ascendancy of Keir Starmer, the path of serious political advancement has become less clear. And the elevation of Andy Burnham to 10 Downing Street has extinguished any hopes Khan might have had of becoming Prime Minister.
That might be quite hard to take. At the Labour conference, the former Mayor of Greater Manchester took centre stage, tweaking the pension triple lock and promising a national social care service, electoral reform and a Brexit review. By contrast, Khan, still London’s Mayor, was talking about regulating e-bikes and pedestrianising Oxford Street.
Khan, whose 56th birthday is approaching, is said to still be ambitious. For some time, people have been speculating that he will seek a role in an international organisation. It seems his preference is to stay in front-line politics, perhaps as a minister now that he has been ennobled as Lord Khan of Tooting. But if there was offer of a government job, would it match his hopes and expectations? Burnham said this week he would “love it” if Khan stood for a fourth mayoral term. But if he did decide to run for City Hall again, it might look as if it was because nothing better had turned up for him. I reckon Londoners would smell that.
Among Labour MPs at the conference there was frustration, picked up by the BBC among others, that Khan does not intend to clarify his intentions until 2027. Some feel he should do it sooner, in order to give a successor as Labour candidate more time to shape their own campaign. It could be a competitive field, with ex-cabinet ministers David Lammy and Steve Reed circling, along with MPs Florence Eshalomi, Dawn Butler and Rosena Allin-Khan.
To an extent, Khan’s previous victories have flattered to deceive. He has won against weak Conservative opponents and been buoyed by the wind in Labour’s sails. The likely Tory challenger this time, James Cleverly, is a more credible and recognisable opponent who is hoping it will be Khan he faces and is ready to run the rule over his 12-year record.
It’s possible that people close to Khan – and even Khan himself – have been seriously entertaining his running for a fourth term, encouraged by a Burnham bounce and a reduced threat from the Greens in particular. But a recent poll found that 56 per cent of Londoners thought Khan should not stand again.
Another poll found that a non-specified Labour candidate would win if an election was held now, but with only a 33 per cent share of first preference votes. In such circumstances, the second preferences of Green and Liberal Democrat supporters might see Khan through, but his endorsement could be seen as less than ringing.
Some Labour MPs and council leaders believe that Khan could win again, but that it is nonetheless time for the mantle to pass to a new candidate who might be just as capable, if not more so, of rallying support for Labour under Burnham’s new regime.
A difficulty for Khan himself is maintaining a strong story about what he’s doing and why. For a long time, he has made air quality and the environment his defining mission. But protests against his expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone to cover the whole of Greater London caused him to back away from the much more radical idea of introducing a London-wide road-user charging scheme. And with the ULEZ job done, he has yet to find a new narrative to match it.
My guess is that his priority now is to find some choreography which allows him to announce his departure with a fanfare early in the New Year. Khan has never lost a election campaign, whether he was standing to be a councillor, an MP or the Mayor. It’s a record worth keeping. Which is why I believe that in his bones he knows he should not risk standing for Mayor again.
Tim Donovan is the former political editor of BBC London and now a trustee of Centre for London and political adviser to Kanda Consulting. Follow him at LinkedIn.
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