Nothing will eclipse the impending Labour collapse in Thursday’s borough elections, but the Conservatives aren’t on course for ending up over the moon either.
If all their wildest hopes come true, they will hold on to the five councils they currently control, regain Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster from Labour – all three of them lost in 2022 – and overhaul Labour in Enfield. That would make nine boroughs out of 32 and not a bad final score, given the sorry state of the party in the capital.
More likely, though, they will emerge from this year’s utterly unpredictable elections breaking even or thereabouts. None of the boroughs they hope to gain look like done deals, with the possible exception of Westminster. By contrast, Bexley is, by some accounts, as good as conquered by Reform UK and although the Tories might remain the biggest party in Bromley they could lose their majority, with Reform making inroads at their expense there too.
Only Kensington & Chelsea and Harrow appear safe (despite the latter being capricious), which brings us to Hillingdon and the importance to the Tories of hanging on to it. Fortunately for them, hanging on to Hillingdon is something the Conservatives are good at.
Here’s a passage from London Decides, the in-depth borough elections guide compiled by me and Lewis Baston. It follows a section about the borough’s Uxbridge & South Ruislip parliamentary seat, famous as the final parliamentary resting place of Boris Johnson and the ULEZ-related bye-election of July 2023 that followed his resignation. This saw a Tory hold against the odds:
“Labour later captured the seat at the general election, though not by a big margin, perhaps reflecting the resilience of Conservative support among voters in much of this part of outer London. Demographic changes that would normally be expected to help Labour haven’t really moved the dial. In the 2021 Census, slightly fewer than half of Hillingdon residents described themselves as white, a drop from 60 per cent in 2011, while those saying they were Asian reached one third of the total. During the same period, the proportion of homes that were privately rented grew a lot too, rising to over a quarter.
In other ways, though, Hillingdon has retained what might be termed a Conservative character: over half of its homes are owner-occupied and it has the highest level of car ownership of all the boroughs, with almost 80 per cent of households having access to at least one car or van.”
Sometimes in recent years it has looked at first glance as if Labour might win Hillingdon, as it has the past, though not since 1994. Such impressions have been mistaken in part because that “Conservative character” has absorbed demographic change rather than being politically altered by it, and in part because several wards in the borough have long been beyond Labour’s reach. For its part, Labour is stronger in the south, while the marginal areas are in the geographical middle, where two wards, Uxbridge and Charville, produced split verdicts last time.
That territory is still very much in play but, this being 2026, the electoral geography and permutations have been transformed. Reform is a new contender, and presents a challenge to both Labour and the Tories. The Greens will be looking to gnaw at Labours margins, and a group of former Labour councillors are seeking to rain on their old party’s parade in and around the town of Hayes, running as the Hayes Independent Party.
I spoke on a background basis to two shrewd readers of local electoral runes, one a very active Conservative, the other with Labour leanings. Both of them reckon the Tories are going to be OK. The Tory was confident that their party would win between 28 and 32 of Hillingdon’s 53 council seats, which would get them across the majority line in much the same shape as last time (when they won 30). The two split wards are looking good for them, I was told, as is Colham & Cowley, where Labour wasn’t far behind four years ago.
Yes, Reform could go some damage, but mostly only at the blue margins with Labour sinking everywhere. The isolated Harefield Village ward in the very north west of the borough at the edge of Greater London could very well turn turquoise, but it only returns one councillor.
London Decides thinks Reform might stand a chance in wards in the Ruislip area, noting that UKIP did quite well round there in 2014. South Ruislip ward in particular is singled out. My Tory contact, though, reckons its safe. And both of my sources think Reform could inflict more damage on Labour in the West Drayton and Yiewsley wards they currently hold, due to the presence in them of hotels accommodating asylum-seekers.
Add to that the Hayes Independents focusing on Labour’s Hillingdon heartland, and my Labour-ish sage thinks the party faces “a disaster” even if none of the rebels get elected. Standalone Independents appealing to Somali voters could weaken Labour’s support too. I’m told.
Complicated, isn’t it? But though it still appears wise not to rule out No Overall Control with the Conservatives the largest party, an overall no change result is what both of my local whisperers expect.
Hillingdon is an exceptionally varied borough, containing – among much else – a huge lido in Ruislip, with an actual sandy beach, and Heathrow airport. Uxbridge, with its Battle of Britain Bunker and Charles Holden Underground station at the end of the Piccadilly and Metropolitan lines, is its administrative headquarter.
We find Hayes in the middle, with its impressive industrial past and multi-ethnic present. I twice spent time there last autumn and paid a flying visit on Sunday to refresh my memory and top up my photo bank. I ate an excellent chicken jalfrezi there too. London is such an extraordinary place.
Follow Dave Hill on Bluesky and at LinkedIn. Dave and elections expert Lewis Baston have compiled the definitive guide to the 2026 borough elections in partnership with public affairs specialist Lowick Hedry. Read it here.
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