When bus passengers are asked about their priorities, reliability always comes top. The reasons are obvious: commuting time to work, parenting commitments, meeting friends, hospital appointments or getting to school. Knowing a bus will arrive regularly and that you will reach your destination in a reasonable time is fundamental to travel choice, if you have one.
So when I read a Transport for London poster at Dalston Kingsland station recently, with its message about bus journeys “getting brighter”, it angered me enough to refer it to the Advertising Standards Authority. The poster may be cleverly worded, but it isn’t truthful. You have to go back to the early years of this century to find bus reliability figures as bad as they are now.
Transport for London was established in 2000 and very soon was incredibly proud of what it achieved for bus passengers in a remarkably short space of time. The chart below of “excess waiting time” dramatically demonstrates the improvements in reliability between the late 1990s and early 2000s. This was delivered initially by an active Government Office for London and then by TfL itself. The average amount of time London bus passengers had to wait beyond the scheduled period was halved.
The first Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, understood what mattered to bus passengers and focussed TfL’s attention accordingly. He used a mix of measures to achieve this aim, both physical and financial. At the heart of his policies was the so called “quality incentive contract”, a combination of bonuses and penalties for bus operators to run their contracted bus mileage, and to do so reliably.
Primary amongst the other measures was the London bus initiative, which introduced over 200 bus priority lanes across the city and, crucially, enforced them with cameras. Oyster ticketing reduced boarding times. And, of course, congestion charging was the most effective area-wide method for increasing bus priority. The funding from scheme was directed towards new and better services.
The improvement continued in the early years of Boris Johnson’s time as Mayor, maintaining a golden era for bus passengers, with more frequent services, more routes and route extensions. Passenger levels rose rapidly to 6.5 million journeys a day.
But his good work didn’t last. A second round of bus priority and a second new contract regime to incentivise quality of service were abandoned and the western extension of the congestion charge zone was removed. And in his second term, from 2012, Johnson appointed Andrew Gilligan, a journalist friend and fanatical cyclist, as his “cycling czar”.
The focus of London streets policy turned dramatically from tackling congestion and further enhancing London’s most important passenger service, the bus, to London’s smallest private transport mode, the bicycle. Cycle Superhighways and mini-Hollands consumed much of TfL’s energy and eye-watering sums of money for the next four years. Bus lanes were converted to cycle tracks and motor vehicle capacity was reduced in favour of cycle priority.
With massive amounts of disruption due to road works, the loss of bus lanes and overall motor vehicle capacity at key junctions across inner London, the inevitable occurred – bus journey times declined. TfL and the bus operators did their bit to maintain performance by adjusting traffic lights to favour buses, shortening bus routes and improving their control of services. TfL officers undertook a lot of work to establish that a decline in passenger numbers was linked to slower bus speeds.
Sir Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty carried on where Johnson’s left off. A new cycling and walking commissioner, Will Norman, continued Gilligan’s focus on bicycles, this time under the cover of a “healthy streets” agenda. There has lately been some recognition of the damage being done to the bus service – hence the poster. But there are inherent contradictions: part of TfL is putting in bus lanes and other bus priority measures, while another part is taking out bus priority and removing motor capacity from bus routes in favour of cyclists.
As a result, bus service performance is the worst it has been since Livingstone’s first term. Reliability is worsening, as shown in the chart. Bus speeds are the slowest they have since the reporting mechanisms of TfL’s I bus system were introduced in 2013. TfL have missed their bus journey time target for the last three years, despite that target being slackened. And what of the actions the poster describes for making bus journeys “brighter”?
A plan published in 2022 promised to adjust traffic signal timings, add bus lanes and increase the hours of operation. These are good things to be doing. However, the root of the problem is that whilst there may be policies supporting buses, London government has been, and continues to, be far too casual about bus performance. The scale of the effort to turn around the decline is woefully inadequate. There are neither the policies nor the commitment to do more. Bus journeys aren’t about to get brighter anytime soon.
Vincent Stops is a former Hackney councillor and lead member for transport who worked on streets policy for London Travelwatch, the capital’s official transport users’ watchdog, for over 20 years. Follow him on X/Twitter.