London population projected to rise by 1.62 million by 2041

London population projected to rise by 1.62 million by 2041

Greater London’s population is expected to rise by an estimated 70,800 people a year until at least 2041, increasing its total to 10.44 million by that year, according to new projections from City Hall.

The new figures anticipate a slightly smaller rise than was calculated earlier this year, but is still broadly in line with recent estimates and, if correct, will see successive new annual records for London’s population size, continuing a trend begun in 2015 when its previous peak of 8.6 million, reached just before World War 2, was exceeded.

The two big drivers of the change will be immigration from overseas and “natural change”, which is the difference between the number of deaths and the number of births. New international in-migration is projected to be 78,900 people a year while the number of births are expected to outstrip the number of deaths by 73,100 a year.

At the same time, domestic out-migration – the number of people who move out of London to other places in the UK – is expected to be greater than the number who move in to London from other parts of the country by 81,200 a year. That figure subtracted from the net increases in international in-migration and natural change produces an overall population rise of 1.62 million between 2018 and 2041.

London’s population has been on a strong upward path since the starts of the 1990s following a long period of post-war decline, and mirroring the city’s booming economic recovery.

The City Hall figures anticipate an average of 131,900 births and 58,700 deaths a year between 2018 and 2041 and 204,800 migrants from overseas to arrive each year while 125,800 move in the opposite direction.

During the same period, 220,700 people are expected to move to London from elsewhere in the UK annually, while 302,900 move out to other parts of the country.

The full City Hall study is here. is dedicated to providing fair, thorough, anti-populist coverage of London’s politics, development and culture. It depends on donations from readers and would like to pay its freelance contributors better. Can you spare £5 (or more) a month? Follow this link to donate. Thank you.





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