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Richard Derecki: How do we prevent the damage done by school exclusions in London?

“You become a non-child, it had such an effect on my daughter, she didn’t exist, and she couldn’t understand why…”

Recently published data shows that last year across London, 851 young people were permanently excluded from their secondary schools. That’s roughly a full class of young people excluded in every borough. During the same period, over 41,000 fixed term exclusions were issued, up by 6 per cent on last year, with over 25,000 young people being excluded on one or more occasions. 

The rate of permanent exclusions from secondary schools has been on a rising trend since 2013-14, though it has stabilised in the past two years, and while London’s rate at 0.17 per cent is a touch below the national average (the North East has the highest permanent exclusion rate at 0.40 per cent) some boroughs in the capital have rates well above the average: Ealing’s is 0.27 per cent, Hackney’s is 0.31 per cent and that of Kensington & Chelsea (RBKC) is 0.32 per cent. 

The negative impact of exclusions on children and parents who have suffered it is well documented. The kind of impact it has on a young person ranges from a loss of confidence to feelings of shame, with parents feeling unable to cope and family resilience severely tested. For some young people school exclusion becomes a life-altering event, limiting all future opportunities.

A working group, of which I was a part, recently investigated RBKC’s increasing rate of permanent and fixed-term exclusions. It found that boys are more likely to be excluded than girls and that children of Afro-Caribbean heritage are over-represented as an ethnic group among the excluded. It also found that young people at secondary school with Special Education Needs (SEN) were at high risk of receiving fixed-term exclusions, with the rate of exclusion of children with such characteristics higher than the London and national rates. Data mapping found a correlation between deprivation and exclusion, mostly in the north of the borough, but also in pockets in southern wards. 

While many of these characteristics overlap, disproportionate exclusions for particular groups suggests either that schools may be failing to adequately support certain learners, or that school behaviour systems inadvertently work against some pupils. As an Institute for Public Policy Research report last year highlighted, there is growing evidence that the system within which schools operate may be incentivising the exclusion of students with complex needs

“Zero-tolerance” behaviour policies were signalled as a cause for concern by the community organisations supporting excluded children that we spoke to: “All behaviour was a form of communication and the system needed to react to what was behind the behaviour rather than being purely reactive [punitive]. This was a big issue with Black/Caribbean boys”

We saw how excluded pupils were often able to excel in alternative provision or at out-of-school clubs, which suggested that there was an issue with the way some young people were interacting and reacting with the school environment that needed to be addressed. 

A possible reason for the high level of exclusions in the borough could be that schools are slow to deal with emerging issues. Early intervention relies on having the necessary information for each young person, but often the quality of the data coming to the schools, particularly if there are a lot of changes of schools in a student’s history, can be patchy. In an ideal world, each young person would have a complete digital record of assessments going back to Early Years. This would immediately flag up to new teachers if there is a need for additional support or specialist intervention – something we have asked RBKC to pilot. 

Heads of schools will argue that they only ever use exclusion as a last resort and after a series of chances to re-set behaviours. However, as their primary concern is to ensure the safety and well-being of all students and staff, there are red lines that signal an immediate exclusion, such as bringing a blade or drugs into school. 

What happens “outside the school gate” can be as much, if not more, of an influence on a young person as what happens within school. RBKC provides early support via an inclusion programme and its early help team. The latter works alongside the school and the family. The programme is targeted at children on a trajectory for potential exclusion, where school-based interventions alone may not be sufficient to enable change.

The council works with schools to review behaviour policies and to understand how behaviour points were accumulated. With the highest proportion of exclusions happening in Year 9, the key is to identify those children most at risk in Years 7 and 8 to enable effective prevention, working with the family to develop and maintain a strong relationship to create improved and sustained change. Early results from the programme are encouraging in reducing incidents of poor behaviour. This has, in turn, reduced the overall risk of fixed-term or permanent exclusion for the pupils referred. 

The broad welcome last year from government for former education minister Ed Timpson’s review of school exclusions held out hope that there would be action to implement his 30 recommendations and his call for additional resources. But, so far, evidence that anything has changed has been hard to find. Let us hope that the likely retrenchment of council spending following the Covid pandemic does not endanger those vital local initiatives that could be starting to make a difference.

Richard Derecki is an economist and governance expert who has worked for the 10 Downing Street strategy unit and the Greater London Authority. Follow Richard on Twitter. Photograph from GLA.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: Analysis

Corona City: Masked men in a dead West End

Saturday, mid-morning, outside Warren Street Tube, a tableau of tat and sadness. The paucity of people is itself a commentary on the damage being done to the heart of the capital. Their sudden, shocking absence throws old failings into sharper relief.

Round the corner, in front of buildings lining Euston Road, a row of rough sleepers’ tents has been known to pop up. There isn’t one today, but a heap of bedding on a bench on the central reservation shows that the problem hasn’t gone away. A man steers a shopping trolley across Tottenham Court Road, only its wheels and handle visible beneath a groaning load of plastic bags and junk. Battered metal stands for the Evening Standard and City AM are chained to a peeling lamp post thick with stickers: FCK Boris, and so on. The news is that it’s starting to rain.

Walk south, and there’s a bunch of guys eating takeouts off a junction box table top outside Carphone Warehouse, waiting, maybe, to be picked up for work. There are one-way arrows on the pavements to aid social distancing, but those guys weren’t getting the message. Soon, Centre Point heaves into view, once a symbol of another kind of London consternation – the high rise, empty office block – but long since listed Grade II. Can Central London recover its vitality, just as Centre Point’s reputation was transformed?

It feels like a long way back. “This is like the 1980s,” my wise companion remarks as we turn into a thinly-peopled Oxford Street. Eighteen months ago, the West End was making plans for its shopping pavements to be fuller than ever, with Crossrail’s Elizabeth Line due to open just in time for Christmas 2018. Many more visitors were due to be disgorged. Now it’s almost spooky at the once-teeming junction with Charing Cross Road, where the cool and capacious new Tottenham Court Road station entrance stands.

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We stroll on to the Circus, me taking snapshots for posterity. In popular culture, masked men are figures of shadowed glamour and maverick virtue: Batman; the Lone Ranger; Zorro. In Selfridges, we are pandemic herd creatures trying to work out how best to conform. A lot of effort is being made on our behalf. Two cheery masked young women at the entrance check that we are correctly attired. A masked man in formal attire ushers us in with a large, ironic sweeping movement. We’re all in this mannered new abnormal together, grinning and bearing it, getting used to the idea that it’s not going away and even that things might never be the same again.

Covering your face before consuming might not be the end of the world, but the glamour of going in to a big department store, that feeling of stepping on to some kind of vintage film set – a vibe perhaps alluded to by the man at the door – is dulled by it. Big store shopping has always been a little soporific – which floor are we on again? where’s the way out? – but the effect of the mask is to heighten the stuffiness, made worse by humid weather. We wander round a bit in search of food, but end up eating al fresco outside a pub. The West End might not be dead, but it is desperate for more life support.

John Vane writes word sketches of London. Sometimes he makes things up. Twitter.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

 

 

Categories: Culture

Daniel Mahoney: The government should devolve more transport funding powers to London

The pandemic has exposed a fatal flaw in London’s transport funding model. Our network has a greater reliance on fares income compared to many other metro systems in international cities and, as a result, has faced significant financial challenges due to the fallout from Covid-19.

In the longer term, Transport for London (TfL) will need to diversify its sources of funding to ensure that it can effectively operate and maintain its existing infrastructure while expanding the network to help meet challenges around boosting connectivity, unlocking land for housing development and achieving net zero ambitions. But London lacks the powers to deliver adequate stable investment streams, and there is now a very real risk that political problems between Whitehall and City Hall mean this situation will remain unchanged.

Pre-pandemic, the picture was already challenging and highly politically charged. Periodic grant agreements for TfL and, more recently, periodic agreements for the Greater London Authority (GLA) to retain a portion of business rates revenue for transport spend have made it difficult for TfL to plan for the future. The Mayor’s decision to freeze fares has also been the subject of intense political fighting both before and during the pandemic.

Decisions by both the government and the Mayor have led to mistrust on both sides, culminating in the Department for Transport (DfT) placing two of its representatives on TfL’s board. But it is now vital that the GLA and Whitehall work together constructively to solve short-term operational issues as well as problems around long-term funding for new investment in the capital’s transport network. After all, the success of London in the future is inherently linked to a world class transport system.

The government could go down the route of taking over the operations of London’s transport network, but history suggests this would not lead to good outcomes. A better landing place, that would be a win-win for all parties, is to give London further fiscal devolution.

Further fiscal devolution would mean London has the powers to raise a greater proportion of funding for its transport needs, freeing up government resources for other priorities. Moreover, the political challenges of implementing new funding mechanisms would lie with London’s politicians – although the government could, of course, still retain some control by putting appropriate limits on tax raising powers to ensure that businesses are not targeted too punitively.

This kind of settlement would also mean Londoners benefit from a transport network that has a much more certain future with a bigger diversity of funding sources – and there would be scope to tap beneficiaries of investment to ensure taxation for transport is fairer in the future.

This is not a radical proposal. It is very similar to what was proposed in the first report of the London Finance Commission, which was created by the Prime Minister when he was Mayor of London. It is now time for national and local policymakers to make it happen.

Daniel Mahoney is programme director for economy and infrastructure at business group London First. Follow him on Twitter.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: Comment

Government must stop treating TfL like a ‘problem child’ says finance chief

It’s time for the government to stop treating Transport for London like a “problem child”. That was the message from the agency’s finance chief Simon Kilonback as he outlined its case for a further £2 billion bailout at the TfL board meeting today.

The call came as auditors warned in TfL’s 2019/20 annual report and accounts, approved at the meeting, of “material uncertainty” over the availability of future resources and, therefore, TfL’s “ability to continue to operate the current level of services” after 17 October, when the current £1.6 billion government bailout ends.

Reliance on fares income for almost three-quarters of its revenue has left TfL particularly vulnerable, as passenger levels slumped by 90 per cent during the pandemic crisis, Kilonback reminded board members. By contrast, fares provide just 37 per cent of public transit revenue in Hong Kong, and 38 per cent in New York and Paris, alongside government grants and income from a range of local funding sources.

In the current crisis, with Tube travel back to only a quarter of pre-crisis levels, Kilonback’s budget report emphasised that “funding from government must cover our fixed operating and capital costs where our revenue has fallen as we can no longer to afford to cover these costs ourselves”. 

Healthy balances had initially enabled TfL to sustain itself for a period, but investment was now on hold, while £1.4 billion a year was needed simply to keep existing services running safely and reliably, he added, warning that the system could need financial support for “several years to come”.

The stakes are high, with TfL’s first bailout hedged with conditions including an above inflation fares hike, increases to the congestion charge, curbs on cheap travel for older passengers and free travel for under-18s, and a Whitehall review not only of TfL’s finances but also its governance and structures.

The bailout also saw two government representatives appointed to the TfL board – Andrew Gilligan, the somewhat controversial cycling commissioner during Boris Johnson’s mayoralty and now a Number Ten adviser, and former senior Department for Transport official Clare Moriarty

The pair were in online attendance for the first time as Kilonback and TfL’s new commissioner Andy Byford, fresh from the helm of the New York Transit Authority and once a foreman at Regent’s Park Underground station, set out their stall on funding and on TfL structures too. 

Transport in London is central to national recovery from the pandemic crisis, said Kilonback, pointing out that 55 pence in every pound invested by TfL supports jobs outside the capital.

“We need certainty, so that we don’t have to go back to government every time there is some sort of demand shock,” he said. “TfL is part of the national infrastructure system and needs to be regarded as part of the national solution – not as a problem child, as we seem to be currently.”

Byford added: “I will be building a compelling case for public transport financing in London – sustainable, affordable, predictable, long-term – allowing me as your commissioner to plan and provide transport services in the capital with confidence, moving away from the hand-to-mouth existence we are currently having to follow.

“We’ve demonstrated over 20 years the benefits of having an integrated planning and delivery organisation for public transport in London, which is the envy of transport organisations around the world. We will make the case that that has to be preserved.”

Moriarty said that TfL needs to work with the government, particularly on costs and opportunities for savings, as well as the future shape of demand and provision.

The meeting also heard confirmation from Crossrail chair Tony Meggs that the already delayed £18 billion project would not see its central section between Paddington and Abbey Wood open next summer, as previously hoped.

A revised timetable is expected in August, along with confirmation of further cost overruns on top of up to £650 million extra costs revealed last year, Meggs said. But a forecast would not be published without “rigorous analysis and independent checking”.

Problems had started “a long time ago”, said Mayor Khan’s transport deputy Heidi Alexander, and the current project managers had “inherited a bit of a mess,” said Byford. A six week “blockade” of 24/7 working on the scheme will begin shortly.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: News

Enfield: Consternation greets North Circular ‘low traffic neighbourhood’ scheme

Like an angry wasp, my local Whatsapp group buzzed into life. Our little cluster of streets just south of the North Circular Road were suddenly on the front line of the low traffic neighbourhood battleground.

We weren’t given much warning of plans to close off our roads brought forward by Enfield Council with cash from the government’s emergency active travel fund. In fact barely the seven days required for the Experimental Traffic Order which will implement the scheme. 

On Friday this week, bollards and planters will block vehicle access for 13 streets, except via the A406 urban motorway – no options by car except “joining the masses on the North Circular”, as one neighbour said.

It’s a rush job, apparently to meet the strict requirements of the funding – £100,000 from an initial £5 million made available in London to promote “active travel” and counter the gridlock threat of a “car-led” recovery by reallocating road space for cycling and walking and, in this case, tackling rat-runs.

But that means minimal notice, no prior consultation, and an increasingly vigorous response from local people; leaflets and posters, at least two petitions underway, and social media humming. 

Schemes like this provoke strong feelings: On one side, these are “Draconian” measures…foisted on residents who have only just found out about them and feel “democratically disenfranchised”; on another, residents facing only marginally longer journeys place “more emphasis on drivers’ convenience than on healthy streets”. And less repeatable exchanges as well.

As I walked past the existing width restriction gate – it keeps larger vehicles out but not the rat-runners swerving a bottleneck North Circular junction to save themselves a few minutes – posters opposing the scheme, proclaiming “Don’t Fence Me In”, were being ripped down by one local. Another buttonholed me threatening loudly to withhold her council tax if the plan went ahead.

The scheme was signed off by Enfield’s deputy leader Ian Barnes, elected to the council in 2018. He’s mentioned on a poster too, which proclaims the area the “Ian Barnes Community Lockdown Zone”. 

Barnes hoped on Facebook that “after the initial bedding in and transition period residents will take a liking to the scheme”. But there’s mounting concern, particularly because consultation will only happen after the scheme is implemented, and because it could be in for up to 18 months before final decisions are made. 

And some sense of increasing polarisation – despite what I perceive, I hope not naively, as a general feeling that the rat-running should be tackled somehow. But perhaps not quite in the way the council proposes.

It’s not a new issue round here after all. But the familiar complexities of London’s streetscape – borough boundaries, TfL roads, bus routes, competing priorities – have always militated against easy solutions.

A letter from Barnes reminds residents that a majority highlighted concerns about the volume of through traffic and traffic speeds when asked last Autumn. But that survey did not mention possible road closures or “filters”, and attracted responses from just seven per cent of the 3,634 households contacted.

And plans canvassed by active travel campaign group Better Streets Enfield proposed different measures; centrally-placed road closures – “better practice”, they say –  to allow partial access either side of the area, rather than North Circular access only. 

A new right turn onto the North Circular has also been a key part of previous thinking, but doesn’t feature in the current plan.

Now, questions are being asked. How will the plan improve congestion around the primary school, which could well have more traffic going past its doors? Won’t access via the A406 only risk the area becoming less attractive rather than more? What other options were considered? What does Haringey say? TfL? And what evidence informed the bid for funding?

Better Streets Enfield concedes that the announcement “came as a bombshell to a lot of residents”, that “not everyone wants to drive in and out of the area via the North Circular”, and that “some car journeys will become much longer as a result”.

The group nevertheless asks us to support the plan “even if you don’t love it”. Improvements will be suggested, it says, but for now, it’s “this imperfect scheme or nothing”.

There will be opportunities to amend the scheme “if required”, Barnes confirms. But many residents are saying why not pause, listen, and get a better scheme from the start.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: Analysis

Survey finds huge opposition from young Londoners to suspension of free transport

More than 95 per cent of 16-to-18 year-old Londoners who responded to a survey by a pan-London youth charity believe the government should drop its requirement that Transport for London temporarily suspends the free travel concession for under-18s.

Partnership for Young London, a City-based charity which supports and convenes youth organisations across the capital and conducted the research, says over 2000 young Londoners filled in the survey, which was conducted through Facebook advertising and Instagram.

Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents said they had heard about the plan, which is a condition of the government’s recent financial bailout of TfL, along with increasing the congestion charge and its hours of operation, raising all public transport fares by more than the rate of inflation, and placing representatives on the TfL board.

Close to two-thirds (64 per cent) said they were worried that their parents would struggle to make ends meet if they had to pay for transport.

Over 70 per cent of survey respondents said they use the bus to get to school or college, compared with 16.5 per cent who travel by train, 5.8 per pent who walk, 4.6 per cent who take the Underground and 0.6 per cent who cycle. Nearly half said their trips to school involve two journey stages – such as taking two buses, or a train followed by a bus – and 20 percent said change twice.

Nearly three-quarters said that if they have to pay for transport they would change how they get to school, with 40 per cent of these saying they would walk instead and 24 per cent saying they would switch to the bus from others modes (presumably because bus travel is cheaper than Tube or rail). Nine per cent said they would go by car or cab, and 12.5 per cent said they would cycle. The survey was funded by Trust for London.

The survey results were highlighted today by deputy mayor for transport, Heidi Alexander, who said the government is “still not clear on what changes they want to make, how or when” and applauded Sadiq Khan’s opposition to the move.

They follow a report from London TravelWatch, the official watchdog of London transport-users, which highlights concerns among young Londoners about not being able to afford fares for journeys to school, to visit friends and relatives or explore the city, becoming more dependent on parents, and threats to personal safety if left exposed on the streets.

The Child Poverty Action Group has been conducting a campaign against the suspension called Don’t Zap The Zip, a reference to TfL’s 16+ Oyster photocard. Its supporters include Sustrans, CitizensUK, Centre for London, Trust for London, London TravelWatch and the Association of Colleges.

The government says the change is needed to prevent overcrowding on London’s buses, which currently have greatly reduced passenger capacities in order to lessen transmission of Covid-19. However, TfL have complained that the measure was added to the bailout conditions at the last moment and will be difficult to implement in practice.

On London understands that Boris Johnson’s special adviser on transport, Andrew Gilligan, has been at the forefront of pressuring TfL over the measure.

Transport secretary Grant Shapps, has said that the Mayor will be able to restore the concession in future should it go ahead, though only after TfL’s financial position has been “resolved”.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: News

Which London neighbourhoods have seen the most Covid-19 deaths and why?

There has been a lot of information compiled and reported about which parts of London and which groups of Londoners are most at risk from the coronavirus and why. Sometimes the flow of facts and theories feels contradictory and confusing. Getting a clear picture is, of course, a vital starting point to working out how best to contain Covid-19. A piece of research for Trust For London by consultants WPI Economics makes a start on that task.

In terms of London’s geography, a piece of Hammersmith & Fulham has seen the highest number of death certificate mentions of Covid-19, as compiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS collects these data from what are called Middle Super Output Areas (MSOAs), each of which has around 7,200 people living in it.

The MSOA with the highest incidence of these “Covid-19 deaths” according to the most recent ONS figures is Ravenscourt Park North, with a rate of 344 such deaths per 100,000 residents. Close behind was Harefield MSOA in Hillingdon, with a rate of 343 per 100,000. After these came Little Ilford West in Newham, Stanmore Park in Harrow, Chingford Green East in Waltham Forest, Greenford South (Ealing) and then Bexleyheath Broadway (Bexley) with a rate of 300 per 100,000.

What accounts for those neighbourhoods being at the top of the London list? Might it all be explained by high levels of poverty? Maybe not. Ravenscourt Park North is an area of middling prosperity, placed on average in the fifth decile of the government’s index of multiple deprivation rankings (a widely-used measure of poverty). So is Harefield in Hillingdon. And though third-placed Little Ilford West is in the second decile – the second most deprived category of MSOAs – fourth-placed Stanmore Park in suburban Harrow is in the eighth decile, meaning it is one of the least deprived.

Moreover, although the 20 London MSOAs with the highest Covid-19 death rates include three that fall into the first, most deprived, decile of the IMD (Stonebridge and Church End, both in Brent, and Tottenham Green East in Haringey), it also includes one from the least deprived group – Sanderstead in Croydon.

Overall, there are more of the poorer MSOAs than the least poor, strongly suggesting that poverty is a significant factor in which London neighbourhoods have the highest rates of deaths in which Covid-19 seems to have play a part. But it appears that other neighbourhood characteristics are at play too.

The WPI Economics paper draws these out. It says that on the strength of the stats available, the “most important neighbourhood factor overall was the count of residents aged 65 or over“. Areas defined as having high numbers of these older people “would be expected to have 25 more Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 than those with lower numbers.

At the same time, the most deprived 20 per cent of London neighbourhoods saw on average 23 more Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people than the 20 per cent least deprived, after the figures were controlled for “a wide range of other neighbourhood measures”.

Those who’ve seen On London‘s coverage of care homes in Croydon (and elsewhere in London) won’t be surprised that WPI Economics calculates that a higher number of care homes in an area also has an impact on the local death rate – 21 more Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 for areas with high numbers of them than those with low numbers.

They also find that “ethnicity was important independently of other factors, particularly neighbourhoods with high numbers of black and Asian residents”. Such neighbourhoods might be expected to experience between nine and 13 more Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 than those with low numbers.

The researchers urge caution about their findings: there are caveats about the data available and it says that its brief analysis “cannot tell us whether there are direct causal links” between age, deprivation and ethnic profiles of areas. However, it believes its study “does provide important insights for policymakers and those providing frontline services”. You can read the report in full via Trust For London.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: Analysis

Andrew Gilligan, Boris’s penny-farthing Cummings, pedals back to City Hall

Back in the autumn of 2008, a few months after Boris Johnson had become London Mayor for the first time, journalist Adam Bienkov spotted similarities between online comments posted at certain websites and articles published by the Evening Standard, which had campaigned for Johnson with adoring zeal.

The subject of the comments was the Mercedes-Benz Citaro, better known as the “bendy bus”. These vehicles had been brought to London’s streets by Ken Livingstone and were relentlessly attacked by the Johnson campaign and its media allies. Arguments about the pros and cons of “bendys” (they had some of each) rolled on after Johnson’s May election triumph.

A piece by Bienkov about the issue for the blog he published at the time attracted this anonymous response: “There’s a certain mad, self-destructive nobility in the Ken Left’s dogged defence of some of the most disliked things in London,” the unnamed commenter wrote. “What’s next – a campaign to rehabilitate Rose West?” This rang a bell with Bienkov, who drew attention to the following passage from an Evening Standard column:

There’s a certain mad nobility in the way Boris’s opponents seem determined to strap themselves to the most unpopular causes going. You wonder what’s next – a support group for double-glazing salesmen? A bid to rehabilitate that misunderstood feminist icon, demonised by the Right-wing media, Rose West?

The author of the Standard column was a man called Andrew Gilligan, whose byline had graced a long string of articles attacking Livingstone during the 2008 campaign. Another comment with echoes of the Gilligan column appeared under a piece at the Guardian:

There’s a certain mad, self-destructive nobility in the Ken Left’s dogged defence of some of the most disliked things in London – Sir Ian Blair, bendy buses.

That comment was posted by someone using the name “kennite”. This “kennite” individual had been active on Guardian website comment threads for some time, cheering on Johnson and deriding Livingstone. Sometimes, “kennite” spoke up for Andrew Gilligan. As early as July 2007, he took issue with columnist Polly Toynbee, who had called Johnson a “sociopath” and Gilligan a “rightwing columnist”. This displeased “kennite”, who wrote:

Polly’s absurd description of Boris Johnson as a “sociopath” betrays, I think, her real panic about his excellent chance of sweeping away Ken. Nor will it do to write off everyone who opposes Ken or New Labour as, by definition, a Daily Mail reactionary. If Polly had ever read any of Gilligan’s columns, she would see someone writing from a broadly left-wing, if anti-New Labour, perspective.

Also active on Guardian comment threads during this period was a commenter called “andrewgilligan”. But it is not surprising that Bienkov (among others) strongly suspected “kennite” to be Gilligan using a pseudonym. If so, it was no capital crime. But using an online persona to defend and promote yourself in the third person – sockpuppeting, as it is known – is regarded in some circles as rather shifty if not unethical. At the height of this small affair, Gilligan was invited to clear the matter up, but did not accept. The Boris-backing “kennite” disappeared.

Today, Gilligan is Prime Minister Johnson’s special adviser on transport and last week it was announced that he has been made one of “the two government special representatives” who will attend meetings of the Transport for London board and two of its committees as one of the many conditions of TfL’s recent financial bailout. What kind of man is Gilligan and what might his influence on Sadiq Khan’s policies, TfL’s delivery of them and the transport body’s long-term future be?

If the “kennite” episode suggests someone much concerned with his own reputation, prepared to use subterranean means to enhance it and susceptible to overdoing things a bit, history provides supporting evidence and, perhaps, some sympathetic explanation. In January 2004, Gilligan, then working for the BBC, became briefly and uncomfortably famous when the report of Lord Hutton’s Inquiry into events surrounding the death of government weapons expert Dr David Kelly found that a report Gilligan had broadcast for the Today programme claiming that the Labour government of that time had knowingly over-stated the military danger posed to Britain by Iraq had been “unfounded“.

Hutton concluded (chapter 8, paragraph 281) that a less sensational story would have been justified, but instead Gilligan had “broadcast a very different and much graver allegation”. Gilligan’s editor of the time told a superior that problems with him included “loose use of language and lack of judgement in some of his phraseology” and the “loose and in some ways distant relationship he’s been allowed to have with Today.” (paragraph 284). After Hutton’s report was published, Gilligan resigned from the BBC. He conceded that “some of my story was wrong” but that Hutton would have concluded that most of it was right if he had “fairly considered the evidence he heard”.

Throughout his ordeal, Gilligan had enjoyed the support of a Conservative MP who was also a well-known journalist at the time – Boris Johnson. And when Johnson became the Tory candidate for London Mayor, Gilligan devoted himself to getting him elected. As with that unfortunate Today broadcast, much of the output the Standard published under his name overstated its own importance (sometimes to a quite ludicrous degree) but in this case there was no distinguished judge to retrospectively sort substance from hyperbole. And the Standard of that time, edited by another firm ally of Johnson, Veronica Wadley, showed no desire to rein Gilligan in.

Gilligan went on to work for the Telegraph, where he again threw himself into discrediting Livingstone when he sought (and failed) to regain the mayoralty from Johnson in 2012. By then, Gilligan had become a keen cyclist and in January 2013 Johnson gave him the freshly-created job of “cycling commissioner”. Much of Gilligan’s 2008 mayoral election material had made the case that Livingstone’s administration was blighted by cronyism. Was he not now a beneficiary of cronyism under Mayor Johnson?

BBC London’s political editor Tim Donovan put it to him that his appointment was “cronyism of the worst kind”. Gilligan replied that his was “a political appointment” and that “all Mayors are entitled to appoint political supporters” to what he was at pains to characterise as “a political role”. The fact that he had no prior experience in the design or delivery of any kind of transport project was, apparently, beside the point. The job needed “somebody who has the confidence of the Mayor, which I have,” he said. He commenced his duties on pay of £38,000 a year for a two-day week.

Did the tyro “commissioner” do a good job? That depends on what you’re looking for. For those believing that the key to nurturing a large and universal cycling culture in London is to instal special infrastructure on roads, notably segregated lanes, Gilligan’s approach was welcome and correct. His mantra was “build it and they will come”, though, any objective jury is surely out on whether “they” have come in sufficient numbers to justify the costs. His attitude to dissenters could be explosive. On Nick Ferrari’s LBC radio show he responded to an item critical of the bike lane added to Vauxhall Bridge, by informing his host that the station’s reporter was “a liar”.

As for his working habits, colleagues from the time express strong views. “He has no doubts,” said a London Assembly Member who had dealings with him. “He’s one of those people who can’t be wrong”. More senior mayoral aides remark on a clanging yet oddly innocent insensitivity to those around him and the problems he sometimes caused for them. “He’d go round making a mess, I would have to clear it up,” one of them shrugged. Another was less forgiving: “He is a poisonous bastard.” Similarities with Dominic Cummings have been noted. Johnson was once denounced as a pound shop Donald Trump. In those terms, maybe Gilligan can be seen as a kind of penny-farthing version of Johnson’s senior adviser. But one transport insider makes an unflattering contrast: “He is dumber than Dom.”

Though Gilligan was not retained by Sadiq Khan when he became Mayor in 2016 and some of the schemes he wanted implemented were changed or dropped, the same broad approach – re-engineering roads in the name of cyclist safety and the belief that this will liberate immense suppressed demand – has been retained. Gilligan, though, has not been satisfied. It was, curiously, the Guardian that gave him space last year to rubbish Mayor Khan’s cycling programme.

Now he is back at City Hall, albeit remotely for the time being. And the government’s intrusions on TfL and Khan’s autonomy already bore his mark: he was spotted weeks ago at TfL’s offices in Southwark in the (perhaps reluctant) company of his more collegiate successor, Will Norman; the prominent “active travel” programme also demanded by the TfL bailout terms is right up his street (as is more congestion charging, which might not endear him to Tory London Assembly Members); sources say he’s at the forefront of trying to force through the suspension of free travel for Londoners under the age of 18, despite the legal and technical obstacles this presents and the social justice arguments made against it.

The question now is what influence he will have over TfL’s and, by extension, the London mayoralty’s future. Khan was at pains last week to tell MPs that TfL and government officials have been co-operating well on the latter’s review of the transport body’s finances, and Khan’s claim to have kept his 2016 promise to make TfL more slim and efficient is considered valid by outside observers.

But the outcome of the government review, including the options it sets out for TfL’s future, remains to be seen. And what already seems very clear is that Johnson and former City Hall aides in and around his government do not like Sadiq Khan, know there is little chance that he will lose next year’s delayed mayoral election, and think they could run London much better than he is. Andrew Gilligan appears to be far from an exception – and he still enjoys the trust of Boris Johnson.

Photograph from GLA.

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Categories: Analysis