What is London really like? What are the city’s values? How are its people feeling? What do they want from their London lives? The coming year will shed continuing light on such questions. Emerging answers will be compelling. They might also be troubling. Or heartening. Or both.
The starkest revelations will be the results of the full borough elections on 7 May, which seem certain to reflect a London version of the fragmentation of voter loyalties seen in last year’s local contests in other parts of the country and reflected in opinion polls for many months.
It has become customary to speak of five significant political parties at national level instead of just two and a bit. Labour and the Conservatives are no longer automatically referred to as the “main” or “major” duo of Left and Right, with the little Liberal Democrats as the middle ground or protest vote alternative. The habitual Big Two are suddenly seen as ailing giants newly threatened by the thriving Greens on one side and the flourishing Reform UK on the other.
Throw into the Greater London mix a rich array of local Independents and, possibly, some or other incarnation of the Your Party slapstick troupe, and this year’s colour-coded results map could resemble a mosaic as geographically and demographically complex as the city itself.
The main impetus for such a starburst outcome will, of course, be dissatisfaction with the Labour national government, seen as hapless, directionless and falling far short of living up to the expected ideals. To that impediment to Labour councillors defending seats can be added the difficulty of making a doorstep case that Sir Keir of Camden has done much for the capital so far.
True, most Londoners – including many of the, let’s say, 35 per cent of those eligible to vote who will bother to do so – won’t have picked up on the drive-by public endorsements of northern grievance narratives provided by the Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves last year.
Even so, most candidates of the party of national government will not be in a position to tell the residents they serve that their borough is to be more generously funded than it was before, or that policing resources have increased and Council Tax is going to be kept down. London Councils and friends have had important successes with curbing the worst extremes of the original Fair Funding Review proposals, but many of the boroughs will keep on feeling the pinch.
The broader backdrop to the elections and to 2026 as a whole is the wearingly familiar pile of problems that threaten London’s future as a city of promise, prosperity and opportunity. There are limited hopes only of the housing emergency, in all its punishing dimensions, being substantially addressed. The bus service, lead workhorse of the capital’s public transport, is in danger of yet further decline.
Unemployment among the young seems set to keep rising. We can hope, but can’t be sure, that recent falls in some categories of police-recorded street crime continue. Meanwhile, new government measures for reducing immigration could spell serious trouble for the social care sector in a city where the number of older people is increasing and for its universities, which are so integral to the city and so valuable to the UK as a whole.
Come April, the end of the two-child limit on Universal Credit will bring financial relief to some of London’s poorest households. The lowest paid working London workers – 150,000 or so – will benefit from a national minimum wage rise from then, too. But it’s a date many central London employers are dreading, as Business Rate changes come into effect. Labour thinks these will help 111,000 London businesses, but those based in properties valued above £500,000 will have to pay more.
The seemingly high chance of political upheaval at borough level may hinder more than help, even if change is seen as being for the better. Novice administrations in, say, Bexley or Newham, would need to learn the ropes. It does not seem fanciful to imagine around a dozen boroughs falling under no overall control, creating delay, disruption and perhaps instability at a time when urgency and consistency seem desirable.
Where planning issues are concerned, some of that can be compensated for by interventions from City Hall, implementing the new emergency measures agreed with the government as they come into effect. Bids for Sir Sadiq Khan’s next affordable homes programme – under its new “social and” affordable name – will come in from February too, but the current bunch of hindrances to homebuilding aren’t going to just evaporate.
London’s social profile is more variegated than often assumed. Though mostly strongly Labour-leaning for much of this century and though strikingly at ease with its cultural variety, it has strongly conservative communities as well as firmly liberal ones. Some of each type, themselves diverse, will be receptive to alternative choices on May’s ballot papers, especially if they feel such candidates stand realistic chances of winning. For better or for worse, how they vote will help us see London’s kaleidoscopic character more clearly.
There are grounds for apprehension about 2026, with low populism prospering at home and dark forces advancing round the globe. May our city’s best qualities shine through.
Photo of London’s New Year fireworks display from Mayor of London’s Bluesky feed.
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