Lewis Baston: Labour’s ‘Super Thursday’ by-election holds can’t disguise a slide

Lewis Baston: Labour’s ‘Super Thursday’ by-election holds can’t disguise a slide

Thursday 28 November saw a Super Thursday of London borough by-elections. There were five vacancies in four wards in three boroughs. Two of the contests arose from councillors being elected MPs in July’s general election, and one party – Labour – was defending all the seats.

A lot of the activity concerned Barking & Dagenham. It hosted three of the votes, one of which came about for the same reason Enfield held a by-election on the same day. The need for new member to represent Northbury ward was caused by the resignation of Darren Rodwell, who had been Barking & Dagenham’s leader for ten years until he stood down in September.

Rodwell had been selected as Labour’s candidate for the Barking parliamentary seat, but withdrew after an allegation of misconduct was made against him. He was later cleared, but it was too late for his parliamentary aspirations. A replacement candidate had already been chosen – Nesil Caliskan, the then leader of Enfield.

It was her elevation to the Commons that left a seat to fill in Enfield. Rodwell, not surprisingly, was sad and angry about these events, blaming “a deliberate attempt to besmirch my name and reputation ahead of the close of nominations”. He decided he was better off out of politics.

The other two Barking & Dagenham by-elections were both in Village ward. One was caused by Margaret Mullane being elected MP for Dagenham & Rainham, the other by the death of Lee Waker, who had been a Village councillor since 2002.

Northbury and Village are at opposite ends of the borough. Northbury is in its north west, covering Barking station and the residential areas to its east and west. It is a highly diverse ward – 39 per cent Asian, 29 per cent white and 23 per cent black. The housing is mainly rented, 40 per cent from private landlords and 29 per cent in the social sector, with only 11 per cent owning their flats or houses outright. Slightly more than the borough average have degrees and significantly more commute to work by Tube.

The ward closely fits the pattern of high-density development around lower-cost commuter hubs in outer London (it is successor to the previous Abbey ward, which was split up in 2022 because of population growth). Its demographic mix makes it fertile ground for Labour and potentially for parties to Labour’s left. It was 69 per cent Labour in the 2022 borough elections, but that sort of share usually sustains a dent in a lower-turnout by-election.

And so it proved. Labour’s Val Masson retained the seat with ease, but the party’s share dipped to 58 per cent (561 votes). Simon Anthony for the Greens came second with 17 per cent (161 votes), just as the Greens had done in 2022. Contesting the ward for the first time, Reform UK came third (101 votes, 10.4 per cent, for their candidate Ryan Edwards), pushing Conservative Angelica Olawepo into fourth by a single vote. Liberal Democrat Olumide Adeyefa brought up the rear. The swing to the Tories was 2.4 per cent, which is at the lower end of the recent spectrum.

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Village ward is in the east of the borough, in the part of Dagenham that lies between the Dagenham Heathway and Dagenham East District Line stations and to their south. Dagenham is for the most part inter-war planned public sector suburbia, and so is a large section of Village ward: 38 per cent of households are social rented. But there are some post-war estates and also the old village of Dagenham (hence the ward name) with its green and its parish church.

The church is old, but was remodelled in the 19th Century. Inside, there is a memorial brass to Thomas Urswick (1415-79), Chief Baron of the Exchequer and one of four MPs at the time for London. Village ward’s population is just over 50 per cent white, a high proportion for the borough. People there tend to drive to work. Although it has been a Labour ward – as have all Barking & Dagenham wards in every election since 2010 – there is potential competition from the right.

All four of the main London parties ran two candidates in the two-seat Village race, with the Conservative pair prefixing the word “Local” to their party name. Neither the Greens nor the Lib Dems made much impression and in the absence of a Reform candidate, who might have polled respectably, the battle was between Labour and the Tories.

Labour’s team (pictured) of Julia Williams (776 votes) and Ajanta Deb-Roy (774 votes) prevailed over their main challengers Ben Suter (580 votes) and Graham Gosling (571 votes).

The Village result, unlike Northbury’s, showed a very impressive swing to the Conservatives – 21.5 per cent since the borough elections in May 2022. But it would be a mistake to conclude from this that the Tories are on course to sweep to victory in Barking & Dagenham in the near future, or in London more generally.

The Conservative vote here varies substantially depending on the type of election. It comes out for mayoral elections – Shaun Bailey carried Village for the Tories in 2021 – and sometimes for general elections, but not in full borough elections.

That is because the local Tory machine is stretched too thin. Labour, conversely, has a well-oiled and successful campaign infrastructure for full Barking & Dagenham borough elections, but sometimes struggles in by-elections.

This explains why the Tories have managed respectable swings in Barking & Dagenham before, such as one of 13 per cent in Mayesbrook in September 2023, when the party was not picking up in general popularity. They have also done better in the recent past than they did on Thursday, when Conservative London Assembly member Andrew Boff achieved a 25 per cent swing in Thames ward in May 2021.

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Enfield’s Jubilee is ward, which Nesil Caliskan vacated, is the northernmost of the block of five Enfield wards making up Edmonton.

The population of the ward is highly diverse. White British account for 20 per cent, around 27 per cent are black – with many distinct communities grouped under that label – and 13 per cent are Turkish or Turkish Cypriot. The ward is 28 per cent Muslim – again, from communities of widely varied origins – and 42 per cent Christian.

It is a predominantly working-class ward, with deprivation levels above the national average. Its name comes from Jubilee Park, which is in the west of the ward. Jubilee also contains the Lee Valley Athletics Centre in the east. It has been a Labour ward with a substantial majority in recent borough elections, although the Conservatives won a share of representation here in 2002 and 2006.

Six candidates took part in the by-election, with those of the five largest parties joined by Khalid Sadur, a left-wing Independent who had the Jeremy Corbyn seal of approval. Labour’s Ian Barnes was a familiar figure, having previously served as the council’s deputy before standing down from Winchmore Hill ward in 2022.

The Conservatives’ Masud Uddin made fly-tipping and the state of roads and pavements in the Labour-controlled borough the main focus of his campaign. The Greens and Lib Dems criticised Labour over housing. But Labour held Jubilee, and Barnes was returned to the council with 853 votes (39 per cent). Uddin provided the main competition with 691 votes (32 per cent). Sadur finished third (208 votes, 10 per cent). Turnout was 21 per cent.

It was not a particularly impressive Labour victory – compared to May 2022 their share of the vote was down 14 points and the Conservatives were up by nine, amounting to a swing from Labour to Tory of 11.3 per cent. If Enfield Tories can replicate that performance on a larger scale in the May 2026 full borough elections they will have cause for celebration – it would be enough for them to win a majority.

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The only by-election held on Thursday that had no Barking & Dagenham connection took place in Islington. Having been chosen by Sadiq Khan to be his new Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime, council leader Kaya Comer-Schwartz stepped down from her Islington municipal roles, including as councillor for Junction ward.

Junction is the north-western ward of Islington, centred on Archway Northern line station. In estate agent parlance it is “Highgate borders”, adjoining both the Highgate ward of Camden and the Haringey one of the same name, and covering the lower slopes of Highgate Hill around the Whittington Hospital. The ward name refers in general terms to the road junction at Archway, but more specifically to Junction Road, which heads south from there to Tufnell Park.

Junction ward is part of the Islington North constituency, which Jeremy Corbyn won as an Independent in the general election, having represented it for Labour since June 1983. Corbyn’s suspension, deselection and independent run have caused ructions in the local Labour Party. These have been reflected in the council chamber, where four ex-Labour Independents now sit in a joint group with the three Greens to provide the official opposition to the Labour administration.

Though significant, this pales in comparison with an earlier phase of Islington infighting in 1981-82, when a majority of the council defected to the newly-formed Social Democratic Party. And the alliance between the Independents and the Greens, newly-concluded, was not reflected in the form of an electoral pact for the by-election, in which an Independent and a Green stood separately.

Labour was defending a large majority, having taken 62 per cent of the vote in 2022. No party had emerged as strong competition since the Lib Dems last won seats in the ward in 2002 and 2006. Their candidate was James Potts, a public affairs consultant. The most effective opposition came from Jackson Caines, an Independent enjoying the support of Corbyn. Caines is a housing campaigner and a community organiser for Harrow Law Centre. Not surprisingly, he put housing at the centre of his campaign. The Greens’ Devon Osborne, who had stood in Tufnell Park in 2022, made similar arguments.

The result  was another Labour hold with another substantial drop in the party’s share of the vote. Potts polled 785 votes (40 per cent) to 550 votes (28 per cent) for Caines. Osborne for the Greens was third with 219 votes – at 11 per cent, her vote share was half what the Greens had won in 2022, a sign that Caines had attracted most of the left-of-Labour vote. None of the other candidates – Conservative, Lib Dem, another Independent and one from the Socialist Party of Great Britain – scored better than 10 per cent. Turnout was 21 per cent.

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Although Labour held all the seats in London’s Super Thursday, the party’s performance was not very super if measured against the 2022 borough elections.

Excuses might be offered for most of the results. As we have seen, the big swing in Village in Barking & Dagenham is not unprecedented and probably not replicable in a bigger contest. The result in Northbury ward was not too bad. The Corbynite challenge in Islington’s Junction was vigorous, but less formidable than Corbyn himself had been July. Enfield council has been much-criticised.

Furthermore, Labour is starting from such a high baseline of support in May 2022 that it can afford to lose a lot of votes and still hold seats and councils. But for all that, a broad pattern of decline in support for Labour is unmistakable.

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Categories: Analysis

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