The departure of James McAsh from his role as Labour-run Southwark’s cabinet member for clean air, streets and waste to the Green Party opposition benches is certainly a significant event. It follows a chaotic Labour group leadership contest last summer, which saw McAsh initially elected, only for the result to be overturned after a higher Labour power deemed there had been irregularities in the process.
A re-run saw McAsh defeated by Labour colleague Sarah King, who duly became the successor to Kieron Williams. Now, as Southwark News reports, McAsh is heaping scorn on his former party, and the leader of his new one is cheering him on. But McAsh’s defection raises an interesting question – will it help Labour in Southwark come 7 May more than it will hurt them?
In Southwark, the Liberal Democrats form the official opposition, having won 11 seats in the borough elections of 2022, compared to Labour’s 52 and the zero of everyone else. Although a long way behind, the Lib Dems have a significant recent history of winning elections and exercising power in Southwark. At parliamentary level, Simon Hughes had a seat there for decades. And in 2002 and 2006, following close finishes with historically-dominant Labour, the Lib Dems took the lead role in hung councils with Conservative support.
It is therefore unsurprising that they are portraying themselves as the natural and most potent alternative to Labour in 2026 for voters disillusioned with that party’s performance both local and nationally. But as the Lib Dems themselves appear very aware, they have a rival suitor for the Southwark anti-Labour vote. It is, of course, the Greens. If the party McAsh has just joined picks up votes the Lib Dems need, the overall effect could be be to split the anti-Labour vote within what psephologists are now calling the Left Bloc of voters – those who choose between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens – and in so doing enable Labour candidates to prevail, even if their share of the vote falls.
The 2022 result in McAsh’s Goose Green ward – which he has told On London he intends to defend as a Green in May – illustrates the potential for such a scenario this time. As Southwark’s website shows (below), the three Labour candidates, McAsh among them, topped the Goose Green ward with room to spare, taking 21, 19 and 17 per cent shares of the vote respectively. In fourth place, a Lib Dem candidate got eight per cent. She was followed by a Green, also with eight per cent (and just 23 fewer votes). In sixth and seventh came two more Lib Dems, both on six per cent, and in eighth came the other Green candidate to contest the ward with five per cent.
In summary, there was next to nothing to chose between the Green and Lib Dem challenges to Labour four years ago – expect that support for the Greens increased. If the same occurs this time, Labour could feasibly win in Goose Green again, even if their candidates experience a fall in support (as they could well do) and even if backing for both the Greens and the Lib Dems goes up (as it might). The challenge for the Greens and Lib Dems alike will include persuading Labour switchers that they are the better option, both in policy and tactical terms. If no clear winner emerges, maybe Labour will hang on. Or maybe there will be winners from more than one party.
Of course, across the whole of Southwark, as elsewhere, local factors will come into play too: all parties may need to decide to give some wards more attention than others; some individual candidates will be more energetic than others; in Goose Green, McAsh’s relatively high profile might give him an edge; the national picture could shift a bit as well. It’s all highly unpredictable, and similar scenarios exist in other Southwark wards, as they do in other inner London boroughs, such as Camden.
Southwark Lib Dems seems well aware that the Greens could rain on their comeback parade. Earlier this month, they issued a press release welcoming as a candidate to defend St George’s ward a woman who stood for the Greens in a different one four years ago. Her new party, she insisted, is the only one in Southwark with a serious chance of beating Labour. And their leader, Victor Chamberlain, responding to McAsh’s defection, told Southwark News: “Everyone knows that after May the council will be led by either the Labour Party or the Liberal Democrats.”
The Greens, though, received 16.5 per cent of the popular vote in Southwark in 2022 – up by 4.4 per cent on 2018. It didn’t win them any seats, but it put them close behind the Lib Dems, who got 19.5. One way or another, they could have a significantly bigger influence on the outcome this time.
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