New analysis from think tank Centre for London has described an inexorable decline in black cab numbers, from almost 23,000 in 2014 to 14,500 in 2024. Just 104 new drivers joined the trade last year. If the trend isn’t arrested, the report warns, the “iconic” London taxi could be extinct by 2045.
We’ve heard this before. A London Assembly report expressed concerns about the future of the black cab back in 2005, and in 2014, when driver numbers had been static for a decade, a further Assembly report suggested the trade was threatened by TfL’s “woefully inadequate” approach to Uber in particular.
Sadiq Khan addressed some of these concerns: his 2016 taxi and private hire action plan tightened the rules for the private trade, provided £50 million to help shift the taxi fleet to zero emission and pledged to maintain its “special privileges”, including the right to ply for hire, to drive in bus lanes and retain exclusive use of taxi ranks. The Mayor went on to remove the congestion charge exemption for private hire vehicles, while maintaining it for black cabs.
But just three years later, a follow-up Assembly investigation suggested black cab drivers still saw their trade as “locked in a battle for its survival”, with concerns about competition, changing passenger demands, driver numbers continuing to fall and the lack of clear legal definitions of “plying for hire” as distinct from “pre-booked” to preserve the distinction between licensed taxis and private hire. The pandemic saw a further driver exodus, and in 2023 Khan himself worried that the black cab could be going “the way of the red telephone box”.
So are we now at a genuine crossroads for the black cab trade? All eyes are on Khan, with his promised new taxi and private hire action plan, which he has said will “clearly set out the role taxis will play in London’s future”, due very shortly.
Intervention on the escalating cost of buying or renting and then operating a black cab is key to the continuing viability of the trade, according to Centre for London. There’s only one authorised vehicle in production that meets zero emission, accessibility and “turning circle” requirements. This costs some £75,000, while operating costs are up 41 per cent since 2019 and grants for swapping diesel for electric cabs are reducing.
City Hall should therefore be lobbying Whitehall on three fronts, the think tank says: for a government interest-free loan scheme for purchasing new cabs; for diesel vehicle scrappage and replacement grants to be extended; and for the VAT exemption for fully wheelchair-accessible vehicles to be extended to black cabs.
The Mayor’s new plan should also outline a 10-year strategy for black cab driver recruitment and retention, the report says. That should include less complex arrangements for the mandatory Knowledge test, first introduced in 1865 and currently testing potential drivers on 320 routes and landmarks within a six-mile radius of Charing Cross, as well as key routes from central to outer London.
Fundamentally, perhaps, Khan could clarify where black cabs fit into the mayoral target for 80 per cent of journeys to be taken by “sustainable” modes of transport rather than private cars. That could mean counting them as public transport, allowing access by default to the entire road network in the capital, including all bus lanes and low traffic neighbourhoods – a quid pro quo perhaps for Transport for London’s strict requirements, as well as recognition of the cabs’ role as a fully accessible transport option.
It’s a challenge for TfL, the official taxi and private hire regulator. There’s certainly no appetite for the “free-for-all” deregulation sometimes advocated, and Khan won’t be repeating his predecessor Boris Johnson’s description of black cab drivers as “Luddites who don’t want to see new technology”.
But while maintaining the trade’s current privileges, the aim is likely to remain allowing “fair competition” across the taxi and private hire industry. Might this still mean the slow death of the black cab trade, even with more funding, as the ride hailing apps continue their advance, or a future as a niche “heritage” service?
Perhaps not. Among the downbeat predictions, there are some grounds for optimism. With the right support, said Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association in response to the new report, “we can cement our crucial role as a fully accessible part of London’s transport mix. We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going anywhere soon”. Londoners are supportive too. In a TfL survey last year, 49 per cent said black cabs offered good or very good value for money, and 66 per cent said more should be done to support the trade.
But continuing to call the black cab “iconic” may not be too helpful. As London Assembly transport committee chair Elly Baker said at the report’s launch, the black cab is “not just an icon but a really important part of the public transport system”. That’s the message the trade and Londoners want the Mayor to hear.
TfL’s new Taxi and Private Hire Action Plan has now been published.
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Black cabs shouldn’t be called public transportation. They are just chauffeured cars available on demand for the wealthy. A passenger in a black cab contributes to congestion the same as whether they get in an Uber or behind the wheel of their own car.
One way to make the Knowledge test more accessible would be to make written exams and appearances mobile phone app based, and available 24×7, with appropriate technological “proctoring” (use of phone camera/audio) to prevent cheating. Technological proctoring is already commonplace for professional exams.
Random physical attendances (at least one in the course) to also help deter cheating.