Like anyone who wants to see tyrants defied, liars exposed and narcissists deflated, I enjoyed Zohran Mamdani’s storming victory in the race to become Mayor of New York. Donald Trump’s full-diaper response has been a cheering spectacle – evidence, perhaps, that the gangster in the White House is feeling fear as well as spreading it.
Not that I’m getting carried away. Any politician greeted with such self-validating glee by the most unconvincing figures on the British Left must be doing something wrong – or, more to the point, must have promised to do things that will be undoable or, if done, will have unadvertised adverse effects.
We shall see. But in the meantime, the manner and the focus of the Democrat’s triumph contain lessons for London’s politicians. Their guaranteed revulsion at the very idea confirms that its Conservatives could learn the most.
Mamdani’s campaign was full of optimism. Contrast that with the unrelenting, year in, year out, sometimes comical negativity of Tory characterisations of London, including by the dwindling number elected here.
This is personified by the London Assembly Conservative group. Last year, one of its members, Susan Hall, became the third Tory candidate in a row to be defeated by Sir Sadiq Khan following yet another hapless and dishonest mayoral campaign.
And yet, untroubled by the hammering she took, the ridicule she received for imagining she’d had her pocket picked on the Tube, or the opprobrium she attracted for egging on some of social media’s foulest gutter trolls, they elected her their leader.
Hall is now even more a creature of Elon Musk’s X cesspit, the online ally of conspiracy theorists, ethnonationalists and fascists for whom cosmopolitan, global London is an object of daily hate.
Where is London Tories’ love for their home city? Where is their defence of its international make-up, its cultural energy, its human variety? Where are their positive solutions for its problems?
The biggest election issue by far for New Yorkers was the cost of living, including the cost of housing, followed by crime. Mamdani addressed these skilfully and directly. We can discuss the viability of his policies another day. The point is, he had some that captured imaginations as well as reflecting concerns.
London’s Tories have no idea how to do that. On housing, they are right to be wary of private sector rent controls, and their argument that lighter mayoral regulation of private private developers can lead to more, rather than fewer, “affordable” homes being supplied has always deserved house room.
But their default Nimbyism and blind faith in Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” to bring prices down cuts no ice with the increasing number of Londoners living in unsuitable, unaffordable and unacceptable accommodation.
As the “party of business”, can it not make a more attractive, persuasive case for housing for low and middle-income Londoners close to places of work? For a professionally-run private rented sector, tailored to labour market need? For a mayoral affordable homes programme, backed with government funding, that helps the widest possible range of employees and families, consistent with the needs of London’s employers?
And their approach to crime is risible – a dismal, repetitive, scaremongering chorus of doom that apes Nigel Farage’s sinister false claims and pretends that only quasi-military solutions work – more stop-and-search and “bobbies on the beat”.
Where is their recipe for a more accomplished, effective, public-serving Met? How would they make a better job than Khan of getting the recommendations of the Casey review implemented, assuming they even care about them? Why should those in London most at risk of being victims of crime – not wealthy visitors wearing expensive watches, but residents of poorer neighbourhoods – believe Tories have their interests at heart when Tories show no interest in them?
Any read-across from Mamdani’s New York win must be sane and realistic. Historically, like London so far, it has tended to choose Mayors from the Left, not the Right so, to some extent, Mamdani was pushing at an open door (the Republican candidate was crushed). It was, though, the way he pushed that enthused so many New Yorkers.
He was upbeat, he was likeable, he was tuned-in. What was more, he ran a campaign for New York, not for the Democratic Party nationally, whose attitude to him was, at most, lukewarm. London Conservatives, in City Hall and everywhere else, should learn that lesson most of all.
They should establish a clear distance from London-bashing Reform impersonators like the opportunist populist Robert Jenrick or the under-educated Katie Lam. They should provide an alternative to their party’s national attitude to London in general, and in the process differentiate themselves from – and more effectively oppose – the London-hating parasites of Reform. They need to learn some lessons from Mamdani. After all, they haven’t got much more to lose.
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You points would carry more weight if they had less bile.
Maybe Rory Stewart’s time has come?
Either as an official Conservative candidate, or as an declared right of centre independent dressed up in Mamdani’s suit (policies and presentation), with clarity in campaigning of what the Mayor can actually deliver for Londoners vs. what the Mayor needs to influence (upwards into central Government & Treasury, and downwards into the boroughs and City). As an independent he may risk letting Reform in, or handing the result to a left of centre candidate to continue Sir Kahn’s underachievements in key areas.
On a specific point, there is a strong possibility that TfL will hit a significant funding predicament in the 2040’s when a number of the fleets will hit end of sensible working life, reducing the ability to run a reliable frequent service and also providing a poor experience (some of what is being experienced on Bakerloo and Central lines, also Picc prior to the new fleet). The next two Mayors need to manage that funding gap to deliver a good outcome for TfL, likely also biting the bullet on fare increases (especially busses) and passes
London Reconnections has just published an in depth review on the topic (21st Century Rolling stock update, covering Underground only), worth a read.