Sadiq Khan has extended his lead in the London Mayor election campaign to 22 points, an increase of two compared with last month, according to a new opinion poll.
The incumbent Mayor was found to be the first preference choice of 50% of the 2,000 Londoners polled by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, with his closest rival, Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey, static on 28%.
Luisa Porritt, the recently-announced Liberal Democrat candidate, and the Green Party’s Sian Berry are in joint third place with 10% each. Exactly half of the poll’s respondents said they are “certain” to vote in the postponed election on 6 May 2021.
The poll shows that Khan’s support has remained solid for the past three months in polls conducted by the same company, standing at 49% in early August and 48% in early September. Support for Bailey has also remained almost entirely unchanged, standing at 26% in the August poll and 28% last month.
Khan’s high level of support creates the possibility that he could win next May’s postponed mayoral election on first preference votes alone by receiving more than 50% of them, which would be the first time such an outcome had occurred since the creation of the mayoralty 20 years ago.
His support is particularly strong among young Londoners, with 60% of 18-to-24-year-olds and 65% of 25-to-34-year-olds saying they will vote for him, compared with 18% and 20% who favour Bailey. Khan has more support than Bailey from all age groups, with the exception of those aged between 55 and 64, among whom Bailey enjoys a lead of 1%. Female voters prefer Khan to Bailey by 54% to 25%, and male voters prefer him by 46% to 30%.
Khan’s support is drawn in almost equal amounts from Inner and Outer London voters, standing at 51% in Inner London and 49% in Outer London. The support for Bailey and Berry by the same measure is very evenly split too. Porritt is the first choice of 11% of Outer London voters and 8% of Inner Londoners.
Khan is supported by 14% of Londoners who voted Conservative at last year’s general election and Bailey by 74% of them. A further 8% of Tory general election voters said they will vote for Sian Berry.
The voting intention findings are drawn from the same Redfield & Wilton survey On London reported other findings from on Sunday, which showed positive approval ratings for Khan in all major policy areas except housing. The fieldwork took place between 15-17 October.
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