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Poll: Sadiq Khan leads London Mayor 2024 election race

The Labour incumbent is the current choice of 41 per cent of Londoners, giving him an eight-point lead with the Conservative and Lib Dem candidates yet to be selected
Dave Hill

Sadiq Khan is currently on course to win a record third term as Mayor of London, according to a new opinion poll.

The poll, by Redfield & Wilton of 1,100 adult Londoners, found that the Labour incumbent commands the support of 41 per cent of them, with yet to be named Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates on 33 per cent and eight per cent respectively, the Green Party’s Zoë Garbett on seven per cent and Howard Cox representing Reform UK on five per cent.

Redfield & Wilton say that when those who say they don’t know how they would vote are factored in, Khan’s eight-point lead over a generic Conservative candidate falls from eight per cent to seven per cent. The Conservatives are in the process of selecting their candidate, having drawn up a shortlist of three.

Khan retains 67 per cent of those who gave him their first preference vote in the 2021 election at this stage, according to the poll, with 10 per cent of his 2021 supporters found to be undecided and seven per cent saying they would now back a Conservative candidate.

Next year’s mayoral election will be the first held under the first-past-the-post voting system, following the first six being conducted under the supplementary vote system, which allowed Londoners to chose a first and a second preference for Mayor.

The change was imposed by the Conservative national government and is expected to improve the Conservative mayoral candidate’s chances of winning in a city which has been increasingly Labour-leaning in recent years.

Khan’s winning margin at the last mayoral election, held in May 2021, was 14.4 per cent after second preferences were added, boosting his lead over his second-placed Tory opponent from 4.7 per cent of first preference votes.

The poll also found that Khan enjoys a net approval rating of +27 per cent among Londoners, with a 53 per cent majority approving of his performance as Mayor compared with 26 per cent who disapprove.

Additionally, the poll found that a 55 per cent majority think Khan has made a “significant” or “fair” amount of progress towards achieving the campaign promises he made during his successful 2021 re-election campaign against 24 per cent who think he has made “a little” progress and 13 per cent who say he has made “no progress at all”.

Asked if they think Khan has been “a good mayor for London”, 51 per cent said they think he has.

The voting intention findings form part of a wide-ranging Redfield & Wilton London survey conducted from 10-12 June, which On London writers helped draft some of the other questions for. Reports on those finding here, here, here and here.

Twitter: Dave Hill and On London. Photo of Sadiq Khan from Mayor of London Twitter feed.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: Conservatives, Green Party, Labour, Liberal Democrats, London Mayor election 2024, Sadiq Khan

Jack Brown: Londoners have diverse views about their diversity

The recent Redfield & Wilton poll produced an intriguing variety of views about identity and immigration
Jack Brown

What makes a Londoner? And how does someone become one? Redfield & Wilton’s poll of Londoners, with lots of input from On London, reveals some conflicting views and a fairly complicated picture.

The London identity is clearly widespread. A full 80 per cent of those surveyed said they considered themselves “Londoners”, with 13 per cent saying that they would “not yet” use the term, implying they would do so at some point in the future, perhaps when they have lived in the city a little longer. Just seven per cent said they didn’t consider themselves to be Londoners, full stop.

This chimes with other polling, such as a Queen Mary University of London poll in 2017 which found a similarly high figure for a comparable question on identifying as a “Londoner” and that this identity was shared fairly evenly across political divides, age groups and social class in the city.

But the Redfield & Wilton poll suggests opinion is split as to how long it takes to become a Londoner. When asked how long someone would have to live in the city in order to qualify, around one in ten thought three months was enough and a similar number thought six months would do it. This suggests that one in five of those living in the capital think you can become a Londoner in less than a year – for them, it is a very inclusive and easily acquired identity.

However, at the other end of the scale, 20 per cent of Londoners said they thought someone has to have been born in the city to actually call themselves a Londoner. Roughly the same amount said it would take ten years or more of living in the capital to consider themselves one.

At the time of the last last census, 2021, around 40 per cent of people living in London were born overseas, and the poll suggests at least some of these people must consider themselves Londoners. Yet there is clearly a noticeable part of the city’s population that thinks they are wrong to do so.

In addition, whilst 45 per cent of Londoners think the level of immigration in the United Kingdom is “appropriate”, over a third (37 per cent) think “there is too much. Just one in ten say there is not enough immigration, which is the position recently taken by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, citing the capital’s labour and skills shortages.

There is more consensus over increasing diversity in the capital, which can, of course, be fuelled by birthrates and internal migration as well as immigration from overseas. Fifty-seven per cent of Londoners said that the city becoming more ethnically and racially diverse was a good thing for the city. But, again, one in five believe the opposite. Another one in five thought it neither a good nor bad thing.

Finally, just over half of Londoners (51 per cent) believe London’s population is now majority non-white. As I (and many others) pointed out late last year, this is simply not true. Just over half of Londoners identify as white, with 37 per cent identifying as White British. However, the ethnic composition of London’s boroughs varies significantly.

In other words – London is a pretty liberal place overall, and is much more comfortable with diversity than Paris, for example. However, there is a noticeable chunk of its population that appears not to share the same vision of the capital.

So it is true that around four in five of those living in the city identify as Londoners, and the same percentage believe that you can acquire the identity without being born here. More Londoners think that immigration is at the right level than think it too high. And a majority of Londoners think that the capital’s increasing ethnic and racial diversity is a good thing.

But were you to pick five Londoners at random, chances are that one of them would think that immigration is too high, that increasing racial and ethnic diversity is a negative for the city, and that those 40 per cent of Londoners who are born abroad are not truly Londoners at all.

These views may be held by different individuals across the five random Londoners, or they might all coalesce in one person. But it is a sizeable minority in a city with an extremely liberal reputation. And you might have to ask another five before you found someone who agreed with the Mayor’s view that immigration needs to be higher.

And of course, these numbers are based on what people are willing to say when polled. “Social desirability bias” can lead respondents to give what they believe to be the “correct” answer, so it is entirely possible that the minority view is a little larger in private.

London is clearly a diverse place – even in terms of its opinions regarding its own diversity.

Twitter: Jack Brown and On London.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: Comment
Tags: diversity, immigration, Redfield & Wilton

Poll: Londoners strongly back more housebuilding, including in their backyards

Redfield & Wilton's wide-ranging London survey also showed that increases in rough sleeping and and begging have not gone unnoticed
Charles Wright

More than six in ten Londoners support more housebuilding in the capital as a whole, with just 17 per cent opposed, according to a new opinion poll from Redfield & Wilton. Nimbyism is in the minority too, with a clear 58 per cent majority also backing new homes in their own area, against 23 per cent saying no.

The poll, whose questions On London writers contributed to drafting, also saw a majority of Londoners saying that rough sleeping on the streets of the capital, as well as street begging, has been on the rise compared to five years ago.

The findings confirm continuing backing for new homes in the city, with “strong support” from 26 per cent of Londoners, “support” from 37 per cent and 18 per cent staying neutral. One in 10 city dwellers declared themselves “opposed” to more housing, and just seven per cent were “strongly” opposed.

As with other surveys of this kind, the figures shifted when respondents were asked the extent to which they would support or oppose an increase in house and apartment building “in your area”, with opposition or strong opposition rising to 23 per cent and 16 per cent neither supporting or opposing.

But those offering support or “strong” support for new homes where they lived remained significantly in the majority, at 36 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.

The finding suggests that opponents of housebuilding may be more vocal than numerous. It is in line too with YouGov tracker figures for last month which showed 69 per cent of Londoners backing a “large increase in the amount of new housing built in your own local area”, against 24 per cent opposed and suggested a level of popular support for calls by London lobbyists including BusinessLDN for a “step-change” in housebuilding in the capital.

Londoners’ views on the need for more housing may have been influenced too by their accurate perceptions that rough sleeping and street begging has been on the increase.

Sixty-three per cent of Londoners said there was “more” or “much more” street begging and rough sleeping compared to five years ago, while 21 per cent said numbers were the same and 12 per cent said there was less or much less visible homelessness.

Figures collected on a regular basis from outreach agencies by the Greater London Authority confirm the picture, with the number of rough sleepers in fact rising year on year for a decade, except for 2017/18 and for 2021/22, when the government’s “Everyone In” urgent housing programme responding to the pandemic was underway.

In 2012/13 6,437 rough sleepers were recorded on the city streets, compared to 8,329 in 2021/22, with peaks of 10,726 in 2019/20 and 11,018 in 2020/21. More recent GLA figures, for October to December last year, suggest the pre-pandemic trend is continuing, with a further increase, up by 21 per cent on the same period in 2021, to 3,570, and the numbers on the streets for the first time, 1,700 in all, up by 29 per cent.

Twitter: Charles Wright and On London.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: homelessness, housing, Redfield & Wilton

Poll: Most Londoners think Met Police ‘fit for purpose’ but three in ten do not

More than one quarter also have a generally negative view of the service, though a strong majority favour current political accountability arrangements
Dave Hill

More than half of Londoners, 56 per cent, regard the Metropolitan Police as “fit for purpose” according to a new opinion poll compared with 29 per cent who do not and 14 per cent who don’t know.

And almost half of Londoners, 48 per cent, say they have either a “positive” (32 per cent) or “very positive” (16 per cent) view of the Metropolitan Police compared with 27 per cent who take a “negative” or “very negative” view. Another 22 per cent said their view was neither positive nor negative.

The poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies of 1,100 Londoners over the age of 18 also found that 14 per cent of them said they have no trust at all in the Met when invited to rate their trust levels on a scale of zero to three, where three represented complete trust. The highest grading (three) was given by 22 per cent of Londoners, compared with 35 per cent who gave a grade two and 28 per cent who gave a grade one.

The ratings for trust in the criminal justice system as a whole were very similar, and also significantly higher than those in the media, social media, religious institutions and the UK government, which 23 per cent of Londoners said they had no trust in compared with 18 per cent who said they had total trust. The National Health Service and “the medical system” got the best trust scores overall, followed by high street banks.

Screenshot 2023 06 14 at 23.55.48

Londoners appear more upbeat about their local police than the Met as a whole, with 37 per cent describing police officers in their area as generally “very” approachable and 43 per cent finding them “somewhat” approachable, although 19 per cent said they find them “not at all” approachable.

Redfield & Wilton also asked the panel how confident they were in the ability of the police to protect them from crime. In all, 47 per cent were either “confident” (31 per cent) or “very confident” (16 per cent) compared with 26 per cent who were either unconfident (15 per cent) or very unconfident (11 per cent) and 27 per cent who said they were neither confident or unconfident.

Londoners were asked two different questions about the accountability of the Metropolitan Police Commissioner to politicians.

When asked to say which of three statements came closest to their view, a majority, 57 per cent, said the Commissioner should be accountable to “both the Home Secretary and the Mayor of London”, 23 per cent said the Commissioner should be accountable “only to the Home Secretary” and seven per cent “only to the Mayor of London”.

There was even stronger support for the Commissioner being accountable to both the Mayor and the Home Secretary when respondents were asked to what extent they favoured that current arrangement, with 70 per cent saying they either “support” (39 per cent) or “strongly support” it (31 per cent) and only eight per cent in all saying they oppose it. Sixteen per cent said they didn’t know.

The questions did not name the current Met Commissioner, Mayor of London or Home Secretary.

Redfield & Wilton’s wide-ranging London poll, whose questions had input from several On London writers and supporters, has also found that a majority of Londoners think Sadiq Khan has been a good Mayor for London and captured a variety of views about transport issues, included buses, the Ultra-Low Emission Zone and pedestrian priority.

Other themes and policy areas examined by the poll will be covered in separate articles.

Twitter: Dave Hill and On London. Photograph from the Labour party.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: crime, Metropolitan Police, policing

Poll: Majority of Londoners think Sadiq Khan has been a ‘good Mayor for London’

Redfield and Wilton's survey has also produced findings about the ULEZ expansion, congestion charging, bus and pedestrian priority, fares policy and more on transport issues
Dave Hill

More than half of Londoners – 51 per cent – consider that, overall, Sadiq Khan has been a “good Mayor for London” compared with 23 per cent who think he’s been a “bad” one and 19 per cent who think neither, according to a new opinion poll from Redfield & Wilton.

The poll, whose questions On London writers contributed to drafting, also found that Khan, by a narrow margin, is thought by the largest number of Londoners to have been the city’s best Mayor so far, with 29 per cent holding that view compared with 28 per cent who think Boris Johnson has been the best, and 24 per cent who think Ken Livingstone has.

Forty-three per cent of the sample of 1,100 adult Londoners said Johnson had been a good Mayor and 30 per cent said he’d been a bad one, and 41 per cent said Livingstone had been good and 15 per cent, bad.

***

The poll also asked a series of questions about transport issues.

Ultra-Low Emission Zone

Asked about Mayor Khan’s plan to expand London’s Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the entirely of Greater London on 29 August, 47 per cent said they either “strongly support” it (18 per cent) or “support” it (29 per cent), compared with 32 per cent who either oppose it (12 per cent) or “strongly oppose” it (20 per cent).

However, asked a separate question about the ULEZ expansion plan, 37 per cent said they would prefer the ULEZ to be “kept to its current inner London boundaries” while 32 per cent would prefer it to be “expanded to include the entirety of London” and 22 per cent said they would like it to be “scrapped entirely”. Opposition to ULEZ expansion was higher in outer London than in inner London in the case of both questions about the issue.

Screenshot 2023 06 21 at 20.59.50

Redfield & Wilton also found that 58 per cent think the purpose of the ULEZ is to “reduce air pollution” compared with 26 per cent who think it is to raise money and eight per cent who think it is to persuade people to buy newer cars. In addition, 52 per cent believe the introduction of the ULEZ has “reduced the level of air pollution and improved air quality in the city” while 36 per cent are more inclined to think it has made no difference.

Congestion Charging

Respondents were also asked if they would support or oppose “the expansion of the Congestion Charge zone to include the entirety of inner London”. An overall 45 per cent said they would “support” (27 per cent) or “strongly support” (18 per cent) such an expansion, and an overall 35 per cent said they would either “oppose” (14 per cent) or “strongly oppose” one (21 per cent).

The poll also found substantial backing among Londoners for the idea of a “pay-per-mile model” of road-user charging system – one which varied according to the time of day and availability of public transport – replacing vehicle excise duty (car tax). Forty-six per cent said they would “support” (27 per cent) or “strongly support” (19 per cent) such a change, against 23 per cent who would “oppose” (11 per cent) or “strongly oppose” it (12 per cent). Twenty-four per cent said neither.

Pedestrianisation of central London

Asked if they would support the pedestrianisation of “the entirety of central London”, 53 per cent said they would.

Transport mode priority

A majority of the Londoners asked (60 per cent) want either “more” (36 per cent) or “much more” (24 per cent) priority given to pedestrians on Londons’s streets.

A very similar majority (57 per cent) want either “more” (33 per cent) or “much more” (24 per cent) priority on London’s street for buses.

This compares with an overall 44 per cent wanting more priority for cyclists (32 per cent “more”, 12 per cent “much more”), and 35 per cent wanting more for taxis, 34 per cent wanting more for private cars and 32 per cent wanting more for motorcycles.

Thirty-seven per cent said they think buses should have the highest priority, followed by 21 per cent who think pedestrians should, then private cars (13 per cent), cyclists (12 per cent), taxis (eight per cent), and electric scooters (one per cent).

Public transport fares

There were two questions about public transport fares. Asked to what extent they agreed with the statement “I would be willing to pay higher fares on London public transport (buses, the tube etc) in return for a better standard of service”, a total of 45 per cent either agreed with the statement (27 per cent) or strongly agreed with it (18 per cent), while a total of 30 per cent either disagreed (15 per cent) or did so strongly (15 per cent).

There was strong majority support at 67 per cent for the idea, backed by London business organisations, of lowering London Underground fares on Mondays and Fridays “to encourage workers to go to the office instead of working from home on those days”.

***

Another headline finding from the poll was that 48 per cent of Londoners have a positive view of the Metropolitan Police compared with 27 per cent who have a negative one. There were other questions about the Met, and also several other issues. These will be covered in separate articles.

Twitter: Dave Hill and On London. Photograph from the Labour party.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: Labour, Redfield & Wilton, Sadiq Khan, ultra low emission zone

City of London facing big planning choices as employment mix and work space demands change

A major new report for the Corporation examines emerging new Square Mile job sectors and the problem of old offices becoming "stranded assets"
Charles Wright

Employment in the Square Mile and demand for office space will continue to grow, with little evidence of a long-term pandemic hit. But the City of London could nevertheless be changing dramatically, according to a new report for the City Corporation, published today.

The report, by consultants Arup and Knight Frank, commissioned to inform preparations for the next City Plan, charts a continuing shift away from traditional Square Mile employment in banking and finance towards “emerging” jobs in the information and communication, professional services, scientific and technical sectors. Fewer sharp suits and more chinos and T-shirts perhaps.

And while it forecasts overall demand for office space up to the 2040s to remain strong, it warns that an increasing focus on high-quality “best of class” space – the so-called “flight to quality” – could leave the City’s significant number of lower quality offices facing a “perfect storm” of market aversion and high refurbishment and “retrofit” costs, putting them at risk of becoming “stranded assets”.

While finance jobs still dominate the Square Mile, change is already underway, the report says, with the number in that category set to decline. Emerging sector firms took up 29 per cent of office space in 2022/23 compared to 19 per cent for finance, and it is they who are projected to drive job growth over the coming two decades. City Hall’s forecast of a 13 per cent hike in job numbers by 2041 – an additional 85,000 workers – could be an underestimate.

To what extent will those workers be based in City offices though? With Tube ridership in the City now relatively steady at 68 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, and up to 75 per cent on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, the report sketches out three scenarios.

The first, “return of in-person”, could see office working reach 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, accompanying an ongoing “flight to quality”. The second, “hybrid peak”, suggests a continuation of the current pattern, while the third, a “new diverse city” model, posits a shift to spending just half the week in the office, with firms needing less space while maintaining their head counts.

All three scenarios envisage higher levels of overall demand for office space in the long term, with between six to 20 million square feet of extra space needed by 2042. The 2020s will nevertheless see an initial slowdown as employers “right-size” and providers struggle to keep up with “flight to quality” demands. Long lease “inertia” should mean a soft landing rather than anything more dramatic, the report suggests.

The Guildhall should focus on increasing the supply of top-quality offices and supporting the upgrading of existing lower grade space, targeting emerging as well as traditional sectors, while encouraging workers back to the commute and continuing to improve the wider City environment, it recommends.

That would mean not only investing in public transport and “active” travel, but also boosting “wider amenity”, including “improvements in public realm and retail as well as interventions such as arts, culture and entertainment programmes”.

But it is the challenge presented by that swathe of lower grade offices needing significant investment to meet the demands of the market which demands urgent action, the report states: “Intervention is needed to allow for fewer obstacles for older stock to be updated to meet office market needs, or to convert to other uses.”

It’s not a small problem. “Grade B” space accounted for only 2.2 per cent of all leasing market transactions in the City last year, with the pre-pandemic small business market for affordable space yet to recover. New energy efficiency standards due in 2026 will see some one million square feet of office space falling below minimum requirements, rendering them unlettable. There are more than 6,000 listed buildings in the Square Mile too, presenting additional challenges.

In a key recommendation, the report suggests relaxing the Guildhall’s current strict planning requirements designed to protect existing office space in order to encourage alternative uses for those assets to prevent them becoming stranded.

That recommendation will go to the Corporation’s Local Plan sub-committee next Tuesday, crucially with the backing of Guildhall planners. Councillors still need to agree, but the door could be opening to some big changes in the Square Mile.

Twitter: Charles Wright and On London.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: Arup, City of London, City of London Corporation, economy

Boris Johnson factor ‘net neutral’ in Uxbridge by-election says Labour candidate

Danny Beales says key to winning is persuading voters to abandon the Tories and trust Labour to provide the changes in their lives they seek
Dave Hill

“For every person you meet who has sympathy or is a massive fan, you also find one who is frustrated with how things have panned out, how Covid was dealt with, Partygate etcetera,” says Danny Beales, Labour’s candidate for the forthcoming by-election in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. “There are certainly people who like him, but I also meet some who are very, very aggrieved about what happened, who lost families during Covid and have a really deep sense of anger and hatred.”

Boris Johnson still has a political presence in the constituency he has now formally departed, having read the report of the House of Commons privileges committee and been displeased. But it will not, according to Beales (pictured), make a difference either way to his hopes of capturing the seat for Labour, and by so doing making a big statement about his party’s progress towards forming the next government.

The fallen PM is “probably a net neutral” as a factor in his contest against a yet-to-be-selected new Tory opponent, he says, and claims other issues, more prosaic but more important, will decide the outcome at the western edge of the city Johnson once led as Mayor.

Beales describes his primary task as speaking to voters about those things – the health service, the cost of living, and so on. “People have a sense that it’s not working – the country is not working. Everything feels more difficult, every process of government they interact with feels log jammed and broken. What people are saying is that change would be a good thing. The challenge for us as Labour is convincing them that we are that change”.

Johnson won in 2019 by 7,210 votes from his Corbynite Labour challenger. The Liberal Democrats and Greens mustered 4,116 votes between them, underlining that anti-Tory tactical voting such as was seen in last month’s local elections across England won’t be enough for Beales. “We need to win over people who haven’t voted Labour before,” he says.

As Lewis Baston has shown, this piece of outer west London has a habit of looking likely to swing from blue to red yet not quite doing it. And although the signs are encouraging for Beales, a Camden councillor and cabinet member for that borough’s council house-building programme but born and brought up locally, the complex demographics of the area and its stubbornly Tory history mean victory is definitely not guaranteed.

“It isn’t going to be a landslide in this by-election,” he stresses. “No candidate will walk into office. You’ve got to really work hard and fight for every vote.”

He is encouraged, though, by Labour’s performance at the 2022 council elections. The borough of Hillingdon, into which Uxbridge & South Ruislip falls, remained Tory-run, not for the first time confounding predictions that it would fall to Labour. Nonetheless, the gap was closed and there were seats gains in wards where Beales will need to do well.

Along with the pressing bread-and-butter national issues being raised on doorsteps – Beales says he has spoken to about 5,000 people since December, when he was picked to fight the seat – Sadiq Khan’s planned expansion of London’s Ultra-Low Emission Zone from 29 August has often been raised. Could local opposition to the Labour Mayor’s high-profile policy be a problem for the Labour parliamentary candidate when the by-election comes, probably in July?

Beales stops short of expressing support for Khan’s specific proposal, limiting himself to recognising “the rationale for trying to transition to less polluting vehicles in the city to improve air quality” and that “Hillingdon has some of the worst air quality in London” while emphasising that decisions about the ULEZ are the Mayor’s to make, not the local MP’s.

His job would be to “represent local people” on the matter, and they hold a range of views. “I hear people who are very concerned about air quality, people who have kids or whom themselves have had asthma,” he says, but also “people who are frustrated with the policy and its impact on them personally, or people they know.”

He says he recognises that the minority of households in a majority car-owning constituency whose vehicles aren’t ULEZ compliant won’t welcome the prospect of buying a different one or facing a daily charge of £12.50. But he also welcomes Khan’s recent widening of eligibility for his scrappage scheme and re-states the point the Mayor and other London Labour politicians have repeatedly made about the national government declining to put extra money in to it, while funding such schemes in other cities.

Central to the Beales pitch to Uxbridge & South Ruislip’s voters is that he would represent them far more diligently than Johnson did from 2015, when he won the seat at the general election of that year. No doubt whoever the Conservatives choose as their new candidate will make his or her own claim to be a champion of local people and their concerns. It could be a close-run thing.

Twitter: Dave Hill and On London. Photograph from the Labour party.

On London and its writers need your backing. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and receive in return the weekly newsletter On London Extra and (at no additional charge) invitations to events featuring eminent Londoners. Pay using any of the “donate” buttons on the site, by becoming a paid subscriber to my Substack, or directly into the company bank account. Email davehillonlondon@gmail.com for details. Thanks, Dave Hill.

Categories: News
Tags: Boris Johnson, Danny Beales, Hillingdon Council, ultra low emission zone, Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Labour derides Tory London Mayor shortlist ‘circus’ as representing ‘more of the same’

A party source has said Sadiq Khan will seek re-election by 'proudly campaigning on his record'
Dave Hill

Sadiq Khan will be “proudly campaigning on his record” when his bid for a third term as London’s Mayor begins, according to a senior London Labour source who said the potential Conservative candidates shortlisted yesterday “represent more of the same approach that we’ve seen over the past 13 years of Tory government”.

Conservative members in the capital will select either London Assembly member (AM) Susan Hall, barrister Mozammel Hossain or tech entrepreneur Daniel Korski to take on Khan at next May’s election. The Conservative candidate is expected to be named on 19 July following a series of hustings.

The Labour source said that whoever the Tories put forward, Khan (pictured) will be highlighting what he was done on “making our city greener, building record numbers of council homes, continuing to tackle violent crime and its causes and giving primary school children free school meals”.

The source derided the Tory selection process as “a circus” and claimed “Londoners know exactly what the Tories are about – a cost-of-living crisis, soaring housing costs and bringing our public services to their knees.

The shortlisted unexpectedly excluded minister for London Paul Scully, the MP for Sutton & Cheam, who had been widely tipped as the favourite to take on Khan, and also the experienced AM Andrew Boff.

Suggestions that Scully was left out because Rishi Sunak feared his selection would precipitate an unwelcome by-election seem likely to be incorrect, as Ken Livingstone continued as an MP for a year after being elected Mayor in May 2000, resigning before the 2021 general election and Boris Johnson did the two jobs simultaneously both at the start and the end of his time at City Hall.

Hall, as the only one of the three Tory hopefuls who is a serving political – she is also a Harrow councillor and led the borough for nine months from September 2013 – will be the one best known to London’s Tory members, and this is likely to mean she starts as favourite. Hall has been congratulated on her shortlisting by Dan Wootton, a presenter on the right-wing television channel GB News on which she often appears.

Korski, who was a policy adviser to David Cameron when he was Prime Minister and has also worked as a journalist, was thought by observers to stand a chance of being shortlisted thanks to an energetic social media campaign and policy ideas, such as “smart” road-user pricing, that offered something different.

Hossain progressing to the shortlist was a complete surprise as the King’s Counsel, who works out of 187 Chambers, made no prior announcement that he had applied to be considered, has no known political experience and, for the moment, no social media presence.

Twitter: Dave Hill and On London.

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Categories: News
Tags: Daniel Korski, London Mayor election 2024, Mozammel Hossain, Paul Scully, Sadiq Khan, Susan Hall