Sadiq Khan has extended his already huge lead over his nearest challenger in the rescheduled race for City Hall according to the latest opinion poll, published today.
The new survey, by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that 51 per cent of London voters intend to give their first preference vote to the incumbent Labour Mayor, which, if replicated in the election on 6 May, would make Khan the first candidate to win a London mayoral election without any need for second preference votes as well.
First preference support for second-placed Shaun Bailey, the Conservative challenger, has fallen to just 25 per cent – down by three per cent from the last poll in mid-January, also by Redfield & Wilton – while backing for Khan has risen by two per cent.
The poll put Liberal Democrat Luisa Porritt in third place on eight per cent, down two points compared with January, but also slightly further ahead of the Green Party’s Sian Berry, who is down by three points to six per cent.
There was an encouraging first appearance in a mayoral poll for Women’s Equality Party (WEP) candidate Mandu Reid, who was the first preference choice of four per cent of respondents, putting her in fifth place ahead of UKIP’s Peter Gammons on two per cent. WEP finished sixth, behind UKIP at the last mayoral election in 2016.
Khan’s lead in the poll was particularly dominant in Inner London, where he was found to be ahead of Bailey by 55 per cent to 19 per cent, but also huge in Outer London, by 49 per cent to 29 percent.
The Labour candidate, who is seeking a second term as Mayor, outscored Bailey by 54 per cent to 26 per cent among female Londoners and by 49 per cent to 25 per cent among men.
Only among voters aged over 65 was Bailey found to be more popular than Khan (by 42 to 38 per cent), with the Labour man easily outscoring the Tory in all other age group brackets. The young the age group, the wider the margin of Khan’s advantage, which extended to 68 compared to nine among chose aged 18 to 24.
Khan was also comfortably ahead of Bailey when voters were sub-divided by educational qualifications. The Labour candidate was the first preference choice of 57 per cent of respondents holding professional qualifications compared with 25 per cent who chose Bailey, and he also enjoyed leads with postgraduate degree holders (48 per cent compared with 23 per cent), undergraduates (54-27), A-level holders (56-20) and those who best qualifications are GCSEs (41-34).
Strikingly, 17 per cent of Londoners who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election intend to vote for Khan in May and a further six per cent say they will abandon the Tories for Berry.Only 67 per cent said they will vote for Bailey.
The poll also indicates a large switch by 2019 Lib Dem voters towards Khan, with 37 per cent saying they intend to vote for him and only 35 per cent saying they will vote for Porritt. Nine per cent of this general election Lib Dems said they will vote for Bailey in May, seven per cent for Berry, and a notable 10 per cent for Reid.
A crumb of comfort for Bailey is that 65 per cent of those who said they intend giving him their first preference vote also said they are “certain to vote” compared with only 45 per cent of Khan supporters who said the same. But even when only the preferences of those “certain to vote” are compared, Khan still has a 17 per cent lead over Bailey.
After presenting the poll findings at an On London webinar earlier today, Redfield & Wilton Director of Research, Philip van Scheltinga, characterised Khan’s lead over Bailey as “devastating”.
The Redfield & Wilton poll explored a range of other issues among Londoner. On London will look more closely at the full details in the coming days.
OnLondon.co.uk provides in-depth coverage of the UK capital’s politics, development and culture. It depends greatly on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources, plus special offers and free access to events. Click here to donate directly or contact firstname.lastname@example.org for bank account details.