Blog

London Councils states strong opposition to Robert Jenrick ‘planning free for all’

Government plans for a radical reform of planning rules have been strongly criticised by the cross-party body that represents the capital’s 33 local authorities.

London Councils has condemned “any moves towards a planning free-for-all” enabled by the proposals, published as a White Paper today, with Number 10 says will make it quicker and easier to build news homes and infrastructure by cutting “red tape”.

Secretary of State Robert Jenrick has claimed his intended changes will “lay the foundations for a brighter future”, but Darren Rodwell, London Councils executive member for housing and planning, has described them as “potentially disastrous for Londoners,” creating a danger of a reduction in the amount of new affordable housing built in the city by weakening boroughs’ powers, and warning that quality standards could also fall.

Stressing a desire for “more detailed information and reassurance from the government over how these changes would work”, Rodwell said that “councils play a crucial role in the planning system, safeguarding our communities’ long-term interests”. Nearly 60,000 homeless household are currently in temporary accommodation by London, accounting around two thirds of the national total.

Labour politicians in the capital have also been swift to criticise. Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley has derided a “confused mass of appalling proposals”. He’s also highlighted Inside Housing’s Peter Apps noting that getting rid of the “Section 106” clause of the Town & Country Planning Act could have big implications for the supply of below market level homes from private developers. “A new fixed infrastructure levy will be charged instead,” says Apps, for, according to the government’s press release, “discounted homes for local first-time buyers”.

The White Paper raises questions over the future supply of housing for Londoners in need of homes for social rent or similar and existing low cost home ownership products, typically for shared ownership. Analysis by the GLA last year anticipated that future Section 106 deals would produce 9,600 new “affordable” homes of all kinds a year – about one third of the total needed.

Camden leader Georgia Gould has also denounced the proposed measures and Westminster Labour Group leader Adam Hug has described parts of the plans as “lunacy” and called on local Tories to join him in defending “the principle of new developments properly contributing to the development of new social and affordable housing”. He added: “The idea that supply of market housing is going to dramatically impact price in inner urban areas (at least not to a point of being remotely affordable to most families) is fanciful”.

Green Party AM and mayoral candidate Siân Berry was also critical, saying an “imbalance of power” in a planning system “already heavily weighted towards big developers over local communities” will be made even worse by centralised “top down targets” and reduced scrutiny and rights.

“People living on estates in London will be chilled to see whole areas proposed to be set aside for ‘growth’ or ‘renewal’ without a single mention of the rights of people already living there,” Berry said. “These new proposals don’t even set out whether residents will have a real say over the areas where they have made their homes and communities being earmarked for instant planning permission.”

Conservative AM Andrew Boff, housing spokesman for the London Assembly Tories described the plans as “a huge overhaul of the country’s planning system, which we are studying carefully. It’s vital that the government gets it right”. Boff said he is encouraged by the White Paper’s stress on encouraging “beautiful design, self-builders and smaller developers”, as well as continuing to “protect the Green Belt and back gardens”.

However, Boff too warned that “automating planning decisions raises concerns over local democracy. Currently, people tend to engage with the planning system when they are concerned with individual applications. In this new system, local plans will be more critical than ever, so we must ensure they are democratic, with people properly consulted and engaged.”

Sarah Bevan, planning expert with business group London First, described the proposals as “radical” and said the move towards a “zoning approach, designating land for growth, renewal or protection has the potential to cut red tape, helping to boost housebuilding and renew our commercial districts”. She added, though, that previous attempts to simplify the planning system have not achieved their goals.

And there’s been a circumspect response from think tank Centre for London, whose deputy director Richard Brown describes the government’s proposals as “radical and far-reaching” and creating potential for “more meaningful community engagement, higher design standards, a less costly and risky planning system and more clarity for smaller builders and developers”. But he warns that implementing the changes “will be complex” and that “other incentives” will be needed to accelerate house-building in the ways Jenrick hopes.

Brown points out, significantly, that London already has a “pipeline of 280,000 homes that have planning permission but have not been built”. And he adds – perhaps ominously for the Sadiq Khan – that the White Paper is “silent on the role of the Mayor and the London Plan” and, for that matter, those of England’s other big city and combined authority Mayors.

This article will be updated as more reactions emerge. Photograph: CGI of planned new building in Purley.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: News

Emma Burnell: Government should support London’s pantomimes, a life force for all our theatres

The glory of attending a pantomime? The silliness, the fun, the sheer joy? 

It’s behind you! 

Well, let’s hope not. 

Pantomime is sometimes sneered at by those who do not view it as “proper” theatre. But without panto, so much else that happens in our city’s theatres wouldn’t be possible. It is this most traditional of art forms that enables theatres to experiment during the rest of the year. 

It’s not just the London Palladium that stages them. Fringe theatres across London put on pantos for the same reason – they bring in much needed revenue just before the slow period of January to March, building up a financial cushion for theatres of all sizes to develop more experimental works. Pantos bring in punters. People who wouldn’t otherwise go to the theatre flock to be amused at what the dames are getting up to. Instead of parents getting babysitters, they take the kids to the show, filling up seats. London pantomime has also blossomed into a huge range of products for all tastes, ages and place. 

Many theatres outside of the West End have done incredible work at opening up panto to more diverse audiences. The Hackney Empire, for example, makes sure that its famous pantos (see photo) reflect and communicate with the BAME community it is situated in. This brings new audiences to theatres and creates communal bonds. You get adult panto, burlesque panto and queer panto – everyone enjoying and subverting the well know tropes of the original product (itself always balancing a fine line between being risqué and child-friendly). 

If London pantos don’t happen this year, it will hurt regional theatres too. A lot of our most popular shows are honed and polished by touring theatres outside the capital. London may be theatre’s beating heart, but that heart is fed by an ecosystem of arteries that spread across the country. The two things are co-dependent.

Let’s also consider what pantomimes bring to the children who see them. This is often a child’s first experience of the theatre. And much as some actors, writers and snobby critics might want you to think differently, the experience of going to the theatre is about a lot more than the action on the stage. The glamour of gold paint and velvet seats, the joy of the interval ice cream and the intensity of being part of a crowd are all part of the joy of theatre.

And there is enormous skill in what happens on stage to create long-remembered experiences. Children are brought into the act of collusion that is at the heart of theatre, as they shout “look behind you” at a character who remains brilliantly, wonderfully oblivious. I’ve watched children screaming to fever pitch at these moments as incredibly skilful performers work them up into rapturous frenzy. These moments create lifelong theatre lovers – the audiences of the future. 

Acting is a famously insecure profession, but there has always been work in panto at Christmas – reasonably well-guaranteed and pretty well paid. Many people who were unable to take advantage of furlough schemes because of their self-employed or jobbing status will miss out on this season of work too – a serious blow at the end of a hard year. 

It may be that it won’t be safe for theatres to operate at full capacity this year, but if we want there to be a generation of theatre lovers to come, it is essential that the government steps in at all levels. The “eat out to help out” vouchers are supporting the restaurant industry. London theatres and the industry that feeds it deserve the same degree of help. The government should be offering panto grants to theatres able to put these shows on at a safe social distance so that least some kids can enjoy this experience. Where that isn’t possible, it should be supporting the theatre the industry in other ways.

Panto’s loss to the wider theatre industry isn’t a joke. The government’s response to its plight so far is laughable. Wouldn’t it be nice for London’s vital cultural industries if Oliver Dowden turned round now and said “Oh no it isn’t”?

Emma Burnell is a freelance writer and the person behind Political Human. Follow her on Twitter

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: Culture

Dave Hill: Sadiq Khan needs to think big and impress ‘Boris’ if City Hall is to be worth winning again

Let’s not pretend that making friends would be easy. People around Boris Johnson who followed him upstream from City Hall loathe and despise Sadiq Khan and are quite certain they could run London better. Hostile forces of our centralising national government have been muscling in on mayoral autonomy since even before the pandemic took hold. No London Mayor would want to take that lying down.

The invasion of Transport for London is but the most advanced. Robert “Westferry” Jenrick took a large and showy axe to Mayor Khan’s proposed new London Plan pre-lockdown. Johnson and co snipe and gloat about the capital’s violent crime, pretending they have some magic remedy. If you were Khan, leading a Labour-leaning city and seeking a second mayoral term, the desire to fight these attackers and the electoral logic of being seen to do so would surely be motivating you too.

And yet jarring questions loom. If the Mayor and the PM don’t make peace, what will be left to be worth winning? If London cannot recover its drive, what will become of the rest of the country?

Johnson knows perfectly well, not least from his own time as Mayor, that the longer the capital’s economy remains subdued, the worse it is for the rest of the UK: an estimated ten per cent of national output comes from its stricken central core alone. He also ought to know that a crushed and martyred mayoralty, self-exiled to the Crystal, its functions annexed back to Whitehall in a deadening reversion to pre-GLA times, would make it harder, not easier, to coax the capital back to life.

Yet it has become only too easy to imagine the office of a twice-victorious Mayor Khan being reduced to a puny shadow of its former self by the time of the delayed election next May. Half of such significant powers as Mayors have – over the planning system, the transport network, the distribution of affordable housing funds and the priorities of the Metropolitan Police – could already be hacked away by then, with the rest under ominous review. Where is the “Boris” who beat the drum for greater devolution? The champion of London infrastructure investment? The radical creator of the London Finance Commission?

Assuming that version of Johnson still exists (or ever truly did), he needs to stop posing on his conquered “red wall”, forego the “levelling up” soundbites and start levelling with reality. He might need help from his successor. It wasn’t only Khan who was narked by London government’s apparent exclusion from a reported discussion about sealing off the capital in the event of a renewed Covid surge – his letter of protest was co-signed by cross-party London Councils chair Peter John. Yet somehow the Mayor needs to cajole Johnson into calling off his commissars and instead help him to help London get back in gear.

It’s worth remembering where the biggest push for a new, devolved, London-wide layer of government came from in the 1990s – the capital’s big business sector. London First was in the forefront of persuading national governments, beginning with the Tory one of John Major, to create a successor to the abolished Greater London Council. Today, they are calling for more devolution, not less. The Mayor needs to align himself more closely with such voices and help turn them up to maximum volume.

He also needs to persuade. To do so effectively will mean joining with others to put together a new, big picture of a successful London future, emphasising its capacity to adapt and to re-grow for the benefit of Brexit Britain as a whole. Johnson is idle about detail, but he likes a nice big picture – as one of his mayoral advisers once put it, if you tell him an exciting story you stand a chance of keeping his attention.

He’ll like the big picture more if it shows him attractive ways to lessen the ravages of the coming recession, that dark cloud that will appear with the autumn. Ministers and advisers might deride anything Khan says or does, but the Johnson who acts on what his fans dignify as “instinct” and others regard as a blend of self-interest and whim doesn’t always do what they tell him – exhibit one, HS2.

Going beyond appeals to set politics aside and going out of his way to seek peace with the PM might entail some risk for Mayor Khan: supporters want him fighting Tories, not making overtures to them; his party leader’s long game is unlikely to entail joining him in speaking up for “rich London”; Andy Burnham would complain, and there would be no guarantee of a reward. You can see why he might think it would be pointless.

But Labour is dominant in the capital and the Tory mayoral candidate is floundering. Khan has room for political manoeuvre, scope for power trade-offs and an interest in achieving compromise. Both sides could present one as being in the national interest. Both sides could well be right.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: Comment

Survey of leading London businesses finds start of gradual return to office working

Staff are beginning to return to leading London business workplaces, but anxiety about using public transport and a shortage of summer childcare remain significant barriers, according to a survey of its members by a leading London business.

Of the 100 business leaders whose views were obtained at the end of last month by London First – almost three quarters said they now have some some staff back in the office, though at most only 20 per cent, while seven per cent said none have yet returned.

Over one third (37 per cent) of businesses have moved staff to different working locations, the survey found, compared with 63 per cent using the same space as before the pandemic. A large majority say their premises are now “Covid-secure” with most of the others working towards that.

Almost all the employers – 95 per cent – said they believe concerns over using public transport are a barrier to staff returning to workplaces, and 68 per cent mentioned problems getting childcare.

Significantly, 43 per cent said they think a preference for working from home is a factor. A  very similar percentages of bosses (41 per cent) said they think they will require less office space in future (while remaining committed to a lease), while 42 per cent said they intend to retain the same amount of space.

Seventy per cent of firms surveyed said they believe a return to the office is important for productivity compared with just 20 per cent who think it isn’t, while, at the same time, half of them believe remote working will become a permanent part of how the majority of their staff work. A quarter think it will become permanent for “some” staff and 21 per cent think it will be for all of them.

A substantial 86 per cent said the “loss of in-person collaboration” as a been a “big negative” of the huge switch to remote working, but 60 per cent say they will be investing in more home-working equipment. Seventy-eight per cent said they plan to re-think workspaces to facilitate “more hybrid working” and 71 percent said they will adjust to more flexible working practices.

London First chair Paul Drechsler said “business leaders are backing the capital and gearing up to bring back those ready to return”. He urged the government to end “the messaging muddle and work flat out with public transport operators to boost confidence in the transport system”.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: News

Institute for Fiscal Studies provides further reasons for ditching talk of a ‘north-south divide’

A new report on geographical inequalities in the UK from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) underlines yet again the flimsy thinking behind the government’s “levelling up” big talk. New output from the revered researchers looks at patterns of wealth and income across the UK and how they have changed during this century. Lo and behold, the picture they paint bears only limited resemblance to populist rhetoric about a problematic “rich London” and a so-called “north-south divide”.

The report’s authors, Sarthak Agrawal and David Phillips, explore a range of data, measuring inequalities across the country in different ways. Taking London as a whole, they find, for example, that although economic productivity and earnings are “a third to half higher than the UK average”, median household incomes after housing costs (AHC) are taken into account are only one per cent higher.

Another regional comparison shows that AHC income inequality between London and rest of the UK has actually lessened since 2002: by that measure, median household income in London has gone up by six per cent in that time compared with 13 per cent in the rest of the UK – a pattern the researchers says “is evident both before and after” the recession that hit in 2007/8.

Again, it’s housing costs that have made the big difference. A greater proportion of Londoners rent their homes than counterparts elsewhere do, and rising rent levels have claimed a relatively bigger slice of their incomes. Also, the soaring cost of buying a home has meant that Londoners have had to take out bigger mortgages. A flip side of that, of course, is that the high value of London property has meant regional inequalities in terms of wealth – as distinct from incomes – have, on the whole, widened.

But, of course, far from every Londoner is a home owner, and only some of those who are don’t have a mortgage. Which brings us to inequalities within regions of the UK, rather than between them. The IFS researchers alert us to the great significance of what it calls these “local inequalities” across the country. These are “even larger than inequalities between regions,” they write, and “especially in London and the South East”.

A vivid example is provided by the difference between median full-time earnings in the London borough of Kensington & Chelsea and the rest of the country and that between the London borough of Barking & Dagenham and the rest of the country: in the case of the former, they are 53 per cent higher than the UK average; in the case of the latter, they are three per cent lower. And, as the IFS has shown us before, London’s poverty rates are shocking: measured AHC, 28 per cent of us live in poverty compared with 22 per cent across the UK as a whole.

The above are just the headline findings from a report that runs to over 30 pages and sets out the many factors the government should take into account as it “seeks to turn ‘levelling up’ from a soundbite into actionable policy”. We wait with bated breath.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

 

Categories: News

Dave Hill: Do ‘Liveable Streets’ policies penalise the poor?

A couple of weeks ago, Tower Hamlets Labour councillor Puru Miah drew attention to concerns raised with him by some residents of his Mile End ward about proposals for reorganising local streets to encourage more cycling, walking and public transport use. The Labour-run council’s Liveable Streets programme, whose genesis pre-dates the Covid crisis and Sadiq Khan’s Streetspace schemes responding to it, provides funding for 17 parts of the borough overall, covering around 60 per cent of it. Tower Hamlets Mayor John Biggs says the schemes “will dramatically change the look of local areas, reduce congestion on our roads and improve health and wellbeing”. So what is Councillor Miah’s problem?

In a video (embedded below) he argued that divided views among residents about Liveable Streets should not been seen simply as “cars versus bikes” but as reflecting issues about “class and inequality”. Miah is a confirmed Momentumite, seemingly undeterred by Labour’s string of election defeats under Jeremy Corbyn. It is, then, unsurprising, that he interprets disputes about Liveable Streets in terms of working-class and ethnic minority disadvantage, recruiting to them to familiar Protest Left narratives about “social cleansing” (which I regard as simplistic and misleading populism) and “gentrification” at the expense of the least affluent (ditto). Moreover, I cannot tell how representative of the views of local people those he reports are.

But for all that, Miah articulates anxieties about the types of measures the Liveable Streets programme entails that aren’t uncommon – anxieties that cycling activists and environmentalists can sometimes be too quick to dismiss or even ridicule. He makes the point that a low income family’s car can be an “entry point” source of income and the only really practical form of transport for large families. “It seems like the poorest in our community are being asked to bear the burden,” he says. He also argues that Liveable Streets-type changes have the effect of pushing up property values, making private sector rents and homes for private sale more expensive.

At one point Miah refers to the Waltham Forest “mini-Holland” programme, which was funded by Boris Johnson when he was Mayor. It is an interested case study. Large claims are made for its success, but not everybody is convinced by the research. The social composition of residents who protested against its introduction was pretty much unmissable. And there seems little doubt that special cycling provision and low traffic neighbourhoods appeal to the sorts of people who can afford higher rents or own a house (cycling in London is, after all, overwhelmingly a transport choice of the more affluent). If more such people are attracted to any neighbourhood, it is unlikely to push housing costs down.

None of this argues that Miah and unhappy Tower Hamlets residents are necessarily right. Miah himself has asked only for an equalities impact assessment to be conducted, rather than for the Liveable Streets programme to be dropped. Also, there are well-argued cases that the least well-off and powerful actually have the most to gain from the types of changes to London streets that Mayor Biggs wants to make in his borough. He argues his position here. In Islington, even Corbyn has been an advocate.

Experience and Tower Hamlets political history suggest that Biggs and his close colleagues will have long been alive to the possibility of objections such as Miah’s, and made provision accordingly. Meanwhile, the Covid crisis has created its own problems. It will be interesting to what happens next. But we can already reflect that such objections are not confined to Momentumite agendas. Champions of “living streets” values sense that the pandemic has given them an opportunity to advance their cause. They need to take seriously those who feel they will lose out from the changes they have in mind if they are going to make the most of it.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

Categories: Analysis

Vic Keegan’s Lost London 154: The original Westminster Bridge

On 31 March, 1736, Parliament voted by 117 votes to 12 to remedy a situation that had resisted reform for 600 years. It was to provide the great city of London with a second bridge across the Thames to complement the original, iconic, London Bridge, on which houses had been built. Looking back it still seems extraordinary that vested interests could have succeeded in preserving the dominion of just one bridge over the river for so long.

It was a formidable cartel, backed by an unholy alliance of Mammon in the form of the City of London (which collected lucrative tolls from people and goods crossing London Bridge), God, in the form of the Archbishop of Canterbury (who received tolls from the Horseferry at Lambeth), and the thousands of watermen who earned their living by conveying people across the Thames in boats. It was one of the most successful monopolies ever.

Opponents of the new bridge warned that it would be to “the great prejudice of the navigation of the river” and would “endanger the lives of the practitioners and the loss of goods or merchandise by them carried”. The General Evening Post predicted with great confidence that, “It will enrich the inhabitants of Westminster, and impoverish the citizens of London… In short, it will make Westminster a fine city and London a desert”. Even the Thames itself seemed to object. During the first debate, the river rose almost to the doors of Parliament and left lawyers in Westminster Hall a foot deep in water.

But built it was, and by an innovative engineer from Switzerland, Charles Labelye (1705-1762), there being no English engineer capable of taking on the task, apparently. He pioneered the use of caissons (retaining structures) to support the bridge, rather than the traditional coffer dams, providing a watertight fence of wood or steel. Labelye modestly claimed that his bridge contained twice as much stone as St Paul’s Cathedral and was “unquestionably the greatest and most difficult work that has ever been attempted in this country”.

The bridge was funded by a combination of money voted by Parliament and the proceeds of several then fashionable lotteries, which enabled it to be constructed without the necessity of imposing tolls. It was greeted at home and abroad as a magnificent achievement, not least for the citizens of Westminster, who at last gained the infrastructure suitable for a the newly fashionable area it had become. There was, though, one unforeseen design flaw. Labelye built cubbyholes on each side of the bridge so pedestrians could take a rest. Unfortunately, they became an easy target for thieves, vagabonds and ladies of the night, who would accost unsuspecting visitors.

There is a sad ending to the story. When a new London Bridge was built, its arches were of a different size to those of the old one. These had served as a kind of breakwater, and the change meant that water poured through at greater speed. Over time, this caused “scouring“ of the foundations of both Westminster Bridge and Waterloo Bridge (built in 1817). Both bridges developed subsidence and had to be replaced as a result. It was almost as if the ghost of the old monopolistic London Bridge had cast a spell over Johnny-come-lately rivals.

The Westminster Bridge we enjoy today was built in 1862 by Thomas Page. It is coloured green to match the seats of the House of Commons. It is the oldest bridge exiting bridge in Central London and has so far escaped the revenge of the old London Bridge. Time is a great healer.

All previous instalments of Vic Keegan’s Lost London can be found here.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough, and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It now depends more than ever on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up London news, views and information from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

 

 

Categories: Culture, Lost London

John Moss: There are better ways to improve London’s air quality than enlarging the ULEZ

We all want to breathe clean air. We all think pollution is bad. It is right that Sadiq Khan acts to improve air quality in London, as both of his predecessors have done. But there is no case for the expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) he has planned for next year.

The current ULEZ, which covers the Central London congestion charge zone, was originally a Boris Johnson policy, announced in 2015, but Mayor Khan brought its implementation forward by 18 months, to April 2019. Before that, from October 2017, he imposed the preliminary Toxicity Charge (T-charge) affecting older petrol and diesel vehicles.

The problem now is that he wants to greatly enlarge the size of the Zone on the strength of evidence that does not justify the policy and despite the adverse financial impacts it will have on those whose vehicles do not comply with its emission requirements.

Khan’s intention is to expand the ULEZ out to the A406 and A205 roads, better known as the North and South Circulars. It will affect all motorcycles, cars, vans and minibuses which are not Euro IV compliant for petrol vehicles and Euro VI compliant for diesel models. Very roughly, this equates to petrol vehicles manufactured in 2004/05 and diesel models dating from 2015/16.

Khan claims this is justified because of “London’s Toxic Air”. Such hyperbolic language is commonly used by those whose true motive seems to be to remove all motor vehicles from our streets. The truth is that London’s air is not toxic. It is getting better and has been getting better for two decades.

The ULEZ policy is being instigated under the Mayor’s environment strategy. Accompanying that document is an Evidence Base. Anybody reading it and other air quality documents on the GLA website, will probably be surprised to learn from them that London’s air quality has improved significantly and is predicted to keep improving, even without the expansion of the ULEZ.

Some pretty remarkable things have been happening as a consequence of already implemented policies, probably the most significant being ever-tightening vehicle standards mandated by the European Union and the creation of the London-wide Low Emission Zone (LEZ) in 2008.

When Khan consulted on the revised ULEZ, much was made of the image below, showing nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations in 2013. The areas affected by poor air quality at that time are clear to see. They are mostly in Central London, with major routes and Heathrow also standing out. But that was seven years ago. People and businesses change their vehicles all the time. Also, the number of journeys to work by car into London has continued to fall from a figure of over 140 million a year in 2000 to just over 70 million a year in 2018. So the graphic is now significantly out of date.

Screenshot 2020 08 01 at 11.02.05

Moreover, the Evidence Base – which does not assume anything beyond the implementation of the Central London ULEZ – predicts overall NOx emissions would fall by 57 per cent by 2030 and that less than 25 per cent of them would be from road transport. And the assumption is that almost all those vehicles will be ULEZ compliant by then, as businesses change them and older vehicles are removed from the pool of vehicles being driven in London.

An updated analysis of air pollution exposure in London was provided for the GLA in 2017 by consultants Aether. It includes the remarkable chart below, which shows air quality which does not meet the EU’s Air Quality Objective – a situation usually referred to by Khan as “illegal”, even though it is only an aspirational target. It shows a statistically almost irrelevant number of people in London affected by poor air quality now, and none in five years’ time.

Screenshot 2020 08 01 at 11.09.29

The story for particulate emissions is similar. Particulates are generally classified as PM10 and PM2.5, (the numbers refer to the size of the particles in microns. The smaller they are, the worse they are for you).

Again, compared with 2013, PM10 emissions are expected to have fallen by 22 per cent by 2030. However, the share from road transport is predicted to stay at around 50 per cent. That is not surprising, as almost all particulate matter from road transport is produced by tyre wear and brake dust. You could be driving a 100 per cent electric vehicle and still need to stop it and steer it. The PM2.5 figures show a greater projected reduction overall, down by 35 per cent by 2030, but the share from road transport again remains steady.

So once again, the ULEZ is aiming at the wrong target. Even without the expansion to the A406/205 boundary, the data shows that exhaust emissions from road transport are not the major source of them. The next chart (below) is for the UK as whole, but it shows how exhaust emissions from road transport are a tiny proportion of total emissions. Non-exhaust emissions – brake dust and tyre wear – remain far higher and both are vastly exceeded by non-road transport sources.

Screenshot 2020 08 01 at 11.52.16

So, this policy is going to make almost no difference to air quality, which is already good and improving. And its imposition will cost a nurse working five shifts in a week who drives to a hospital inside the ULEZ in a vehicle that’s not exempt £62.50 a week. Carers working six days a week who don’t have exempt vehicle could lose £75 a week, and they are some of the lowest-paid workers in London.   And older, retired people, perhaps with a small pension who bought – on government advice of the time – a good diesel car ten years ago thinking it might see them out, but who now need to go to hospital on a regular basis, will have to pay £12.50 every time.

To add insult to this injury, if you live just outside the A406/205 boundary, your air quality will be made worse as more vehicles skirt the ULEZ to avoid paying a charge. And there are no exemptions for people with Blue Badges or for residents living inside the expanded zone. Only adapted vehicles have any exemption. Even the emergency services will have to pay.

There are other policies that would do more to help improve air quality and it would be better to spend the estimated £200 million that will be spent on a ring of cameras to enforce the expanded zone to pay for them. Air-cleaning planting, smarter bus routing, cleaner buses and smoother flowing traffic are all relatively easy and quick to implement. All are better options than Mayor Khan’s unjustified and iniquitous new tax on Londoners.

John Moss a Conservative councillor in Waltham Forest. He runs the Stop ULEZ campaign. Follow John on Twitter.

OnLondon.co.uk exists to provide fair, thorough and resolutely anti-populist news, comment and analysis about the UK’s capital city. It depends heavily on donations from readers. Give £5 a month or £50 a year and you will receive the On London Extra Thursday email, which rounds up news, views and information about London from a wide range of sources. Click here to donate via Donorbox or contact davehillonlondon@gmail.com. Thanks.

 

Categories: Comment